Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control

New Zealand responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of border restrictions and an Alert Level (AL) system that included strict stay-at-home orders. These interventions were successful in containing an outbreak and ultimately eliminating community transmission of COVID-19 in June 2020....

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Autores principales:	Rachelle N. Binny, Michael G. Baker, Shaun C. Hendy, Alex James, Audrey Lustig, Michael J. Plank, Kannan M. Ridings, Nicholas Steyn
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	The Royal Society 2021
Materias:	infectious disease outbreak non-pharmaceutical interventions stochastic model COVID-19 coronavirus border restrictions Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/1ffdcdd6686045cebacc4de89e4f23df
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:1ffdcdd6686045cebacc4de89e4f23df2021-11-17T08:05:51ZEarly intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control10.1098/rsos.2104882054-5703https://doaj.org/article/1ffdcdd6686045cebacc4de89e4f23df2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210488https://doaj.org/toc/2054-5703New Zealand responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of border restrictions and an Alert Level (AL) system that included strict stay-at-home orders. These interventions were successful in containing an outbreak and ultimately eliminating community transmission of COVID-19 in June 2020. The timing of interventions is crucial to their success. Delaying interventions may reduce their effectiveness and mean that they need to be maintained for a longer period. We use a stochastic branching process model of COVID-19 transmission and control to simulate the epidemic trajectory in New Zealand's March–April 2020 outbreak and the effect of its interventions. We calculate key measures, including the number of reported cases and deaths, and the probability of elimination within a specified time frame. By comparing these measures under alternative timings of interventions, we show that changing the timing of AL4 (the strictest level of restrictions) has a far greater impact than the timing of border measures. Delaying AL4 restrictions results in considerably worse outcomes. Implementing border measures alone, without AL4 restrictions, is insufficient to control the outbreak. We conclude that the early introduction of stay-at-home orders was crucial in reducing the number of cases and deaths, enabling elimination.Rachelle N. BinnyMichael G. BakerShaun C. HendyAlex JamesAudrey LustigMichael J. PlankKannan M. RidingsNicholas SteynThe Royal Societyarticleinfectious disease outbreaknon-pharmaceutical interventionsstochastic modelCOVID-19coronavirusborder restrictionsScienceQENRoyal Society Open Science, Vol 8, Iss 11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	infectious disease outbreak non-pharmaceutical interventions stochastic model COVID-19 coronavirus border restrictions Science Q
spellingShingle	infectious disease outbreak non-pharmaceutical interventions stochastic model COVID-19 coronavirus border restrictions Science Q Rachelle N. Binny Michael G. Baker Shaun C. Hendy Alex James Audrey Lustig Michael J. Plank Kannan M. Ridings Nicholas Steyn Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control
description	New Zealand responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of border restrictions and an Alert Level (AL) system that included strict stay-at-home orders. These interventions were successful in containing an outbreak and ultimately eliminating community transmission of COVID-19 in June 2020. The timing of interventions is crucial to their success. Delaying interventions may reduce their effectiveness and mean that they need to be maintained for a longer period. We use a stochastic branching process model of COVID-19 transmission and control to simulate the epidemic trajectory in New Zealand's March–April 2020 outbreak and the effect of its interventions. We calculate key measures, including the number of reported cases and deaths, and the probability of elimination within a specified time frame. By comparing these measures under alternative timings of interventions, we show that changing the timing of AL4 (the strictest level of restrictions) has a far greater impact than the timing of border measures. Delaying AL4 restrictions results in considerably worse outcomes. Implementing border measures alone, without AL4 restrictions, is insufficient to control the outbreak. We conclude that the early introduction of stay-at-home orders was crucial in reducing the number of cases and deaths, enabling elimination.
format	article
author	Rachelle N. Binny Michael G. Baker Shaun C. Hendy Alex James Audrey Lustig Michael J. Plank Kannan M. Ridings Nicholas Steyn
author_facet	Rachelle N. Binny Michael G. Baker Shaun C. Hendy Alex James Audrey Lustig Michael J. Plank Kannan M. Ridings Nicholas Steyn
author_sort	Rachelle N. Binny
title	Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control
title_short	Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control
title_full	Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control
title_fullStr	Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control
title_full_unstemmed	Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control
title_sort	early intervention is the key to success in covid-19 control
publisher	The Royal Society
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/1ffdcdd6686045cebacc4de89e4f23df
work_keys_str_mv	AT rachellenbinny earlyinterventionisthekeytosuccessincovid19control AT michaelgbaker earlyinterventionisthekeytosuccessincovid19control AT shaunchendy earlyinterventionisthekeytosuccessincovid19control AT alexjames earlyinterventionisthekeytosuccessincovid19control AT audreylustig earlyinterventionisthekeytosuccessincovid19control AT michaeljplank earlyinterventionisthekeytosuccessincovid19control AT kannanmridings earlyinterventionisthekeytosuccessincovid19control AT nicholassteyn earlyinterventionisthekeytosuccessincovid19control
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Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control

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