Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models

Abstract The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the...

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Autores principales:	Sandra Oliveira, Jorge Rocha, Carla A. Sousa, César Capinha
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/205e1b72d46444ab8e68524f9226a493
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:205e1b72d46444ab8e68524f9226a4932021-12-02T14:35:39ZWide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models10.1038/s41598-021-89096-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/205e1b72d46444ab8e68524f9226a4932021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89096-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.Sandra OliveiraJorge RochaCarla A. SousaCésar CapinhaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sandra Oliveira Jorge Rocha Carla A. Sousa César Capinha Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models
description	Abstract The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.
format	article
author	Sandra Oliveira Jorge Rocha Carla A. Sousa César Capinha
author_facet	Sandra Oliveira Jorge Rocha Carla A. Sousa César Capinha
author_sort	Sandra Oliveira
title	Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models
title_short	Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models
title_full	Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models
title_fullStr	Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models
title_full_unstemmed	Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models
title_sort	wide and increasing suitability for aedes albopictus in europe is congruent across distribution models
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/205e1b72d46444ab8e68524f9226a493
work_keys_str_mv	AT sandraoliveira wideandincreasingsuitabilityforaedesalbopictusineuropeiscongruentacrossdistributionmodels AT jorgerocha wideandincreasingsuitabilityforaedesalbopictusineuropeiscongruentacrossdistributionmodels AT carlaasousa wideandincreasingsuitabilityforaedesalbopictusineuropeiscongruentacrossdistributionmodels AT cesarcapinha wideandincreasingsuitabilityforaedesalbopictusineuropeiscongruentacrossdistributionmodels
_version_	1718391058655608832

Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models

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