A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.

When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using in...

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Autores principales:	Chellafe Ensoy, Marc Aerts, Sarah Welby, Yves Van der Stede, Christel Faes
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/216554e98b1946ee99dd2a1663bc52cf
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:216554e98b1946ee99dd2a1663bc52cf2021-11-18T08:47:34ZA dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0078591https://doaj.org/article/216554e98b1946ee99dd2a1663bc52cf2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24244324/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using information on the 2006 Bluetongue outbreak in cattle farms in Belgium, a spatio-temporal transmission model was formulated. The model quantifies the local transmission of the disease between farms within a municipality, the short-distance transmission between farms across neighbouring municipalities and the transmission as a result of cattle movement. Different municipality-level covariates such as farm density, land composition variables, temperature and precipitation, were assessed as possibly influencing each component of the transmission process. Results showed a significant influence of the different covariates in each model component, particularly the significant effect of temperature and precipitation values in the number of infected farms. The model which allowed us to predict the dynamic spreading of BTV for different movement restriction scenarios, also affirmed the significant impact of cattle movement in the 2006 BTV outbreak pattern. Simulation results further showed the importance of considering the size of restriction zones in the formulation of guidelines for animal infectious diseases.Chellafe EnsoyMarc AertsSarah WelbyYves Van der StedeChristel FaesPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 11, p e78591 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Chellafe Ensoy Marc Aerts Sarah Welby Yves Van der Stede Christel Faes A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.
description	When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using information on the 2006 Bluetongue outbreak in cattle farms in Belgium, a spatio-temporal transmission model was formulated. The model quantifies the local transmission of the disease between farms within a municipality, the short-distance transmission between farms across neighbouring municipalities and the transmission as a result of cattle movement. Different municipality-level covariates such as farm density, land composition variables, temperature and precipitation, were assessed as possibly influencing each component of the transmission process. Results showed a significant influence of the different covariates in each model component, particularly the significant effect of temperature and precipitation values in the number of infected farms. The model which allowed us to predict the dynamic spreading of BTV for different movement restriction scenarios, also affirmed the significant impact of cattle movement in the 2006 BTV outbreak pattern. Simulation results further showed the importance of considering the size of restriction zones in the formulation of guidelines for animal infectious diseases.
format	article
author	Chellafe Ensoy Marc Aerts Sarah Welby Yves Van der Stede Christel Faes
author_facet	Chellafe Ensoy Marc Aerts Sarah Welby Yves Van der Stede Christel Faes
author_sort	Chellafe Ensoy
title	A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.
title_short	A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.
title_full	A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.
title_fullStr	A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.
title_full_unstemmed	A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.
title_sort	dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue btv-8 in belgium.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/216554e98b1946ee99dd2a1663bc52cf
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A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium.

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