Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades

Abstract The underlying mechanisms for Arctic sea ice decline can be categories as those directly related to changes in atmospheric circulations (often referred to as dynamic mechanisms) and the rest (broadly characterized as thermodynamic processes). An attribution analysis based on the self-organi...

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Autores principales:	Lejiang Yu, Shiyuan Zhong, Timo Vihma, Bo Sun
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/21d8779972de4f4f944494aac96ace32
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:21d8779972de4f4f944494aac96ace322021-12-02T13:43:57ZAttribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades10.1038/s41612-020-00157-42397-3722https://doaj.org/article/21d8779972de4f4f944494aac96ace322021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00157-4https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract The underlying mechanisms for Arctic sea ice decline can be categories as those directly related to changes in atmospheric circulations (often referred to as dynamic mechanisms) and the rest (broadly characterized as thermodynamic processes). An attribution analysis based on the self-organizing maps (SOM) method is performed to determine the relative contributions from these two types of mechanisms to the Arctic sea ice decline in August–October during 1979–2016. The daily atmospheric circulations represented by daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies are classified into 12 SOM patterns, which portray the spatial structures of the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Dipole, and their transitions. Due to the counterbalance between the opposite trends among the circulation patterns, the net effect of circulation changes is small, explaining only 1.6% of the declining trend in the number of August–October sea ice days in the Arctic during 1979–2016. The majority of the trend (95.8%) is accounted for by changes in thermodynamic processes not directly related to changes in circulations, whereas for the remaining trend (2.6%) the contributions of circulation and non-circulation changes cannot be distinguished. The sea ice decline is closely associated with surface air temperature increase, which is related to increasing trends in atmospheric water vapor content, downward longwave radiation, and sea surface temperatures over the open ocean, as well as to decreasing trends in surface albedo. An analogous SOM analysis extending seasonal coverage to spring (April–October) for the same period supports the dominating role of thermodynamic forcing in decadal-scale Arctic sea ice loss.Lejiang YuShiyuan ZhongTimo VihmaBo SunNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Lejiang Yu Shiyuan Zhong Timo Vihma Bo Sun Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
description	Abstract The underlying mechanisms for Arctic sea ice decline can be categories as those directly related to changes in atmospheric circulations (often referred to as dynamic mechanisms) and the rest (broadly characterized as thermodynamic processes). An attribution analysis based on the self-organizing maps (SOM) method is performed to determine the relative contributions from these two types of mechanisms to the Arctic sea ice decline in August–October during 1979–2016. The daily atmospheric circulations represented by daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies are classified into 12 SOM patterns, which portray the spatial structures of the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Dipole, and their transitions. Due to the counterbalance between the opposite trends among the circulation patterns, the net effect of circulation changes is small, explaining only 1.6% of the declining trend in the number of August–October sea ice days in the Arctic during 1979–2016. The majority of the trend (95.8%) is accounted for by changes in thermodynamic processes not directly related to changes in circulations, whereas for the remaining trend (2.6%) the contributions of circulation and non-circulation changes cannot be distinguished. The sea ice decline is closely associated with surface air temperature increase, which is related to increasing trends in atmospheric water vapor content, downward longwave radiation, and sea surface temperatures over the open ocean, as well as to decreasing trends in surface albedo. An analogous SOM analysis extending seasonal coverage to spring (April–October) for the same period supports the dominating role of thermodynamic forcing in decadal-scale Arctic sea ice loss.
format	article
author	Lejiang Yu Shiyuan Zhong Timo Vihma Bo Sun
author_facet	Lejiang Yu Shiyuan Zhong Timo Vihma Bo Sun
author_sort	Lejiang Yu
title	Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
title_short	Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
title_full	Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
title_fullStr	Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
title_full_unstemmed	Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
title_sort	attribution of late summer early autumn arctic sea ice decline in recent decades
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/21d8779972de4f4f944494aac96ace32
work_keys_str_mv	AT lejiangyu attributionoflatesummerearlyautumnarcticseaicedeclineinrecentdecades AT shiyuanzhong attributionoflatesummerearlyautumnarcticseaicedeclineinrecentdecades AT timovihma attributionoflatesummerearlyautumnarcticseaicedeclineinrecentdecades AT bosun attributionoflatesummerearlyautumnarcticseaicedeclineinrecentdecades
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Attribution of late summer early autumn Arctic sea ice decline in recent decades

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