What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE

Rapid industrialization and urbanization accelerate land use and land cover change, resulting in problems of stability and health with ecosystem services losses. It remains unclear and needs to be detailed discussed what spatial–temporal characteristics of the production-living-ecological spaces (PL...

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Autores principales:	Jiansheng Wu, Danni Zhang, Han Wang, Xuechen Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Production-living-ecological spaces Dual environment evaluation Future land use simulation Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/229dc5c54a9f42f48112030082b97f1c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:229dc5c54a9f42f48112030082b97f1c2021-12-01T04:59:58ZWhat is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108171https://doaj.org/article/229dc5c54a9f42f48112030082b97f1c2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21008360https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XRapid industrialization and urbanization accelerate land use and land cover change, resulting in problems of stability and health with ecosystem services losses. It remains unclear and needs to be detailed discussed what spatial–temporal characteristics of the production-living-ecological spaces (PLES) would be in a rapidly developing bay area under a certain development goal. A novel future land use simulation model integrated with a dual environment evaluation system consisting of the evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity and territorial spatial development suitability was conducted to predict the PLES in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in a multi-scenario view; and then we figured out the spatial–temporal changes of the PLES in the GBA during 2015–2035. Results suggest: 1) Using the DEE to determine conversion probability estimation helps to simulate and predict land use changes with high accuracy. Under the CUA scenario, the PLES account for 21.76%, 14.60% and 63.64%, respectively. The production space in Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Dongguan is dispersed, while the living space in Dongguan is clustered. The patch boundary of ecological space in Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen would become more complex. 2) The change of the PLES in the GBA is mainly manifested by the processes of production and ecological space transferring to living space even under CUA scenario, which mainly occurs on the edge of the existing living space, especially in Zhaoqing, Conghua District of Guangzhou, Longmen County and Boluo County of Huizhou. 3) With potential conflicts between production space and ecological space, more attention should be paid to reducing the occupation of basic farmland in ecological restoration in the GBA. The future PLES in the GBA would be characterized by the conflict between the living and non-living spaces and that between productive and ecological spaces. The predicted PLES under CUA scenario may provide a spatial reference for policy-making in the future territorial spatial development and construction of ecological security patterns in the GBA.Jiansheng WuDanni ZhangHan WangXuechen LiElsevierarticleProduction-living-ecological spacesDual environment evaluationFuture land use simulationGuangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay AreaEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 131, Iss , Pp 108171- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Production-living-ecological spaces Dual environment evaluation Future land use simulation Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Production-living-ecological spaces Dual environment evaluation Future land use simulation Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Ecology QH540-549.5 Jiansheng Wu Danni Zhang Han Wang Xuechen Li What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE
description	Rapid industrialization and urbanization accelerate land use and land cover change, resulting in problems of stability and health with ecosystem services losses. It remains unclear and needs to be detailed discussed what spatial–temporal characteristics of the production-living-ecological spaces (PLES) would be in a rapidly developing bay area under a certain development goal. A novel future land use simulation model integrated with a dual environment evaluation system consisting of the evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity and territorial spatial development suitability was conducted to predict the PLES in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in a multi-scenario view; and then we figured out the spatial–temporal changes of the PLES in the GBA during 2015–2035. Results suggest: 1) Using the DEE to determine conversion probability estimation helps to simulate and predict land use changes with high accuracy. Under the CUA scenario, the PLES account for 21.76%, 14.60% and 63.64%, respectively. The production space in Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Dongguan is dispersed, while the living space in Dongguan is clustered. The patch boundary of ecological space in Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen would become more complex. 2) The change of the PLES in the GBA is mainly manifested by the processes of production and ecological space transferring to living space even under CUA scenario, which mainly occurs on the edge of the existing living space, especially in Zhaoqing, Conghua District of Guangzhou, Longmen County and Boluo County of Huizhou. 3) With potential conflicts between production space and ecological space, more attention should be paid to reducing the occupation of basic farmland in ecological restoration in the GBA. The future PLES in the GBA would be characterized by the conflict between the living and non-living spaces and that between productive and ecological spaces. The predicted PLES under CUA scenario may provide a spatial reference for policy-making in the future territorial spatial development and construction of ecological security patterns in the GBA.
format	article
author	Jiansheng Wu Danni Zhang Han Wang Xuechen Li
author_facet	Jiansheng Wu Danni Zhang Han Wang Xuechen Li
author_sort	Jiansheng Wu
title	What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE
title_short	What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE
title_full	What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE
title_fullStr	What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE
title_full_unstemmed	What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE
title_sort	what is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the greater bay area? a multi-scenario perspective based on dee
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/229dc5c54a9f42f48112030082b97f1c
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What is the future for production-living-ecological spaces in the Greater Bay Area? A multi-scenario perspective based on DEE

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