A random-walk-based epidemiological model

Abstract Random walkers on a two-dimensional square lattice are used to explore the spatio-temporal growth of an epidemic. We have found that a simple random-walk system generates non-trivial dynamics compared with traditional well-mixed models. Phase diagrams characterizing the long-term behaviors...

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Main Authors:	Andrew Chu, Greg Huber, Aaron McGeever, Boris Veytsman, David Yllanes
Format:	article
Language:	EN
Published:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Subjects:	Medicine R Science Q
Online Access:	https://doaj.org/article/22d866b7c9724cea9da6866d2e511a04
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:22d866b7c9724cea9da6866d2e511a042021-12-02T17:37:40ZA random-walk-based epidemiological model10.1038/s41598-021-98211-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/22d866b7c9724cea9da6866d2e511a042021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98211-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Random walkers on a two-dimensional square lattice are used to explore the spatio-temporal growth of an epidemic. We have found that a simple random-walk system generates non-trivial dynamics compared with traditional well-mixed models. Phase diagrams characterizing the long-term behaviors of the epidemics are calculated numerically. The functional dependence of the basic reproductive number $$R_{0}$$ R 0 on the model’s defining parameters reveals the role of spatial fluctuations and leads to a novel expression for $$R_{0}$$ R 0 . Special attention is given to simulations of inter-regional transmission of the contagion. The scaling of the epidemic with respect to space and time scales is studied in detail in the critical region, which is shown to be compatible with the directed-percolation universality class.Andrew ChuGreg HuberAaron McGeeverBoris VeytsmanDavid YllanesNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Andrew Chu Greg Huber Aaron McGeever Boris Veytsman David Yllanes A random-walk-based epidemiological model
description	Abstract Random walkers on a two-dimensional square lattice are used to explore the spatio-temporal growth of an epidemic. We have found that a simple random-walk system generates non-trivial dynamics compared with traditional well-mixed models. Phase diagrams characterizing the long-term behaviors of the epidemics are calculated numerically. The functional dependence of the basic reproductive number $$R_{0}$$ R 0 on the model’s defining parameters reveals the role of spatial fluctuations and leads to a novel expression for $$R_{0}$$ R 0 . Special attention is given to simulations of inter-regional transmission of the contagion. The scaling of the epidemic with respect to space and time scales is studied in detail in the critical region, which is shown to be compatible with the directed-percolation universality class.
format	article
author	Andrew Chu Greg Huber Aaron McGeever Boris Veytsman David Yllanes
author_facet	Andrew Chu Greg Huber Aaron McGeever Boris Veytsman David Yllanes
author_sort	Andrew Chu
title	A random-walk-based epidemiological model
title_short	A random-walk-based epidemiological model
title_full	A random-walk-based epidemiological model
title_fullStr	A random-walk-based epidemiological model
title_full_unstemmed	A random-walk-based epidemiological model
title_sort	random-walk-based epidemiological model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/22d866b7c9724cea9da6866d2e511a04
work_keys_str_mv	AT andrewchu arandomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT greghuber arandomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT aaronmcgeever arandomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT borisveytsman arandomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT davidyllanes arandomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT andrewchu randomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT greghuber randomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT aaronmcgeever randomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT borisveytsman randomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel AT davidyllanes randomwalkbasedepidemiologicalmodel
_version_	1718379872455229440

A random-walk-based epidemiological model

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