Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia

The abundance of water resources avails Indonesia an excellent advantage in terms of the development of the capture and aquaculture fisheries. In recent years, Indonesian fish production has shown an increasing trend. The capture and aquaculture fisheries reached 6.6 million and 16.0 million tonnes...

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Autores principales:	Bayu Rhamadani Wicaksono, Tendi Sutandi, Sydney Tembo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta 2020
Materias:	double exponential fisheries production seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima) Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2310b425c8f441bb8226f2529bc8c94f
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:2310b425c8f441bb8226f2529bc8c94f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2310b425c8f441bb8226f2529bc8c94f2021-12-02T16:56:26ZForecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia1411-99002541-550610.18196/jesp.21.2.5039https://doaj.org/article/2310b425c8f441bb8226f2529bc8c94f2020-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9181https://doaj.org/toc/1411-9900https://doaj.org/toc/2541-5506The abundance of water resources avails Indonesia an excellent advantage in terms of the development of the capture and aquaculture fisheries. In recent years, Indonesian fish production has shown an increasing trend. The capture and aquaculture fisheries reached 6.6 million and 16.0 million tonnes respectively in 2016. The growing trend was translated into an average contribution of 2.4 percent towards the national GDP in 2013-2017. However, the absence of forecasting methods and data on fisheries production's potential growth contributes to ineffective policy interventions that require optimum production. Therefore, this study's main objective is to find the most accurate forecasting method for Indonesia's fisheries production. This research utilized the quarterly data of Indonesian fisheries production in 2000-2018 obtained from the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries. A comparative analysis of the Double Exponential and Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) method was undertaken to arrive at the most accurate forecasting method. The study findings broadly revealed that Indonesia's fish production was on an increasing trend, with aquaculture fisheries' contribution outweighing the capture fisheries in recent years. Furthermore, the SARIMA method was found to be the most accurate forecasting method compared to the Double Exponential method. The findings are useful for the government and related stakeholders for enhancing fish productivity in Indonesia. In addition, SARIMA methods could be used to forecast the fish production in upcoming years for better policy, strategy, and decision-making in developing the fisheries sector in Indonesia.Bayu Rhamadani WicaksonoTendi SutandiSydney TemboUniversitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakartaarticledouble exponentialfisheries productionseasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima)Economic theory. DemographyHB1-3840ENJurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, Vol 21, Iss 2, Pp 170-184 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	double exponential fisheries production seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima) Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840
spellingShingle	double exponential fisheries production seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima) Economic theory. Demography HB1-3840 Bayu Rhamadani Wicaksono Tendi Sutandi Sydney Tembo Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia
description	The abundance of water resources avails Indonesia an excellent advantage in terms of the development of the capture and aquaculture fisheries. In recent years, Indonesian fish production has shown an increasing trend. The capture and aquaculture fisheries reached 6.6 million and 16.0 million tonnes respectively in 2016. The growing trend was translated into an average contribution of 2.4 percent towards the national GDP in 2013-2017. However, the absence of forecasting methods and data on fisheries production's potential growth contributes to ineffective policy interventions that require optimum production. Therefore, this study's main objective is to find the most accurate forecasting method for Indonesia's fisheries production. This research utilized the quarterly data of Indonesian fisheries production in 2000-2018 obtained from the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries. A comparative analysis of the Double Exponential and Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) method was undertaken to arrive at the most accurate forecasting method. The study findings broadly revealed that Indonesia's fish production was on an increasing trend, with aquaculture fisheries' contribution outweighing the capture fisheries in recent years. Furthermore, the SARIMA method was found to be the most accurate forecasting method compared to the Double Exponential method. The findings are useful for the government and related stakeholders for enhancing fish productivity in Indonesia. In addition, SARIMA methods could be used to forecast the fish production in upcoming years for better policy, strategy, and decision-making in developing the fisheries sector in Indonesia.
format	article
author	Bayu Rhamadani Wicaksono Tendi Sutandi Sydney Tembo
author_facet	Bayu Rhamadani Wicaksono Tendi Sutandi Sydney Tembo
author_sort	Bayu Rhamadani Wicaksono
title	Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia
title_short	Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia
title_full	Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia
title_fullStr	Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia
title_sort	forecasting fisheries production in indonesia
publisher	Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/2310b425c8f441bb8226f2529bc8c94f
work_keys_str_mv	AT bayurhamadaniwicaksono forecastingfisheriesproductioninindonesia AT tendisutandi forecastingfisheriesproductioninindonesia AT sydneytembo forecastingfisheriesproductioninindonesia
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Forecasting Fisheries Production in Indonesia

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