Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19

Abstract Exploiting the SIQR model for COVID-19, I show that the wavy infection curve in Japan is the result of fluctuation of policy on isolation measure imposed by the government and obeyed by citizens. Assuming the infection coefficient be a two-valued function of the number of daily confirmed ne...

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Autor principal:	Takashi Odagaki
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/23414a6911ce4077b395ad3206e7bdd7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:23414a6911ce4077b395ad3206e7bdd72021-12-02T11:50:30ZSelf-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-1910.1038/s41598-021-81521-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/23414a6911ce4077b395ad3206e7bdd72021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81521-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Exploiting the SIQR model for COVID-19, I show that the wavy infection curve in Japan is the result of fluctuation of policy on isolation measure imposed by the government and obeyed by citizens. Assuming the infection coefficient be a two-valued function of the number of daily confirmed new cases, I show that when the removal rate of infected individuals is between these two values, the wavy infection curve is self-organized. On the basis of the infection curve, I classify the outbreak of COVID-19 into five types and show that these differences can be related to the relative magnitude of the transmission coefficient and the quarantine rate of infected individuals.Takashi OdagakiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Takashi Odagaki Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19
description	Abstract Exploiting the SIQR model for COVID-19, I show that the wavy infection curve in Japan is the result of fluctuation of policy on isolation measure imposed by the government and obeyed by citizens. Assuming the infection coefficient be a two-valued function of the number of daily confirmed new cases, I show that when the removal rate of infected individuals is between these two values, the wavy infection curve is self-organized. On the basis of the infection curve, I classify the outbreak of COVID-19 into five types and show that these differences can be related to the relative magnitude of the transmission coefficient and the quarantine rate of infected individuals.
format	article
author	Takashi Odagaki
author_facet	Takashi Odagaki
author_sort	Takashi Odagaki
title	Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19
title_short	Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19
title_full	Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19
title_fullStr	Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed	Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19
title_sort	self-organized wavy infection curve of covid-19
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/23414a6911ce4077b395ad3206e7bdd7
work_keys_str_mv	AT takashiodagaki selforganizedwavyinfectioncurveofcovid19
_version_	1718395152809066496

Self-organized wavy infection curve of COVID-19

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