Stocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: Evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a Chinese reservoir
Alien species invasions are considered to be one of the multiple key drivers that trigger ecological regime shifts in ecosystem structure and function. Predicting population collapse and understanding the self-reinforced feedback mechanisms that erode the resilience of native species are two major c...
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2021
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oai:doaj.org-article:23ba884ac1ff4f2bbcc0234c0c9d0f632021-12-01T05:02:50ZStocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: Evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a Chinese reservoir1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108327https://doaj.org/article/23ba884ac1ff4f2bbcc0234c0c9d0f632021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21009924https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XAlien species invasions are considered to be one of the multiple key drivers that trigger ecological regime shifts in ecosystem structure and function. Predicting population collapse and understanding the self-reinforced feedback mechanisms that erode the resilience of native species are two major challenges in invasion ecology. However, to date, empirical evidence of species invasion-induced regime shifts remains scarce, and the minimum required data to generate early warning signals (EWSs) before critical transitions remains unclear, despite its importance for ecosystem management. By combining 80-year (i.e., 1936–2016) fishery data from Lake Qiandao and a theoretical competition model, we provide evidence that relative to nutrient enrichment and climate change, stocking alien fish species of silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Aristichthys nobtilis) is the most important driver leading to the collapse of local fish populations. Detectable EWSs indicated by the variance, autocorrelation and composite resilience indicators require at least ten years of data before an abrupt decline, demonstrating that a long-term ecological monitoring program is necessary for providing insight into resilience dynamics. A structural equation model (SEM) suggests that the combined effects of eutrophication, high water levels and carp stocking-induced water clarity decline may play an important role in the reduced fitness of local fish populations, which subsequently increase the carrying capacity of alien fish populations. Our results demonstrate that stocking alien carps result in competitive exclusion of local fish populations, especially in the current context of water eutrophication and global climate changes. Furthermore, quantifying the minimum required time series length with detectable EWS across various ecosystems should be further studied given that this information is critical for flexible management policies to take actions to avert the harmful transitions.Haojie SuJiamin PanYuhao FengJia YuJiarui LiuLi WangYun LiJun ChenZhixu WuSuhui MaJingyun FangPing XieElsevierarticleCritical transitionEarly warning signalSpecies invasionFish stockingLake QiandaoClimate changeEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 132, Iss , Pp 108327- (2021) |
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DOAJ |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
EN |
| topic |
Critical transition Early warning signal Species invasion Fish stocking Lake Qiandao Climate change Ecology QH540-549.5 |
| spellingShingle |
Critical transition Early warning signal Species invasion Fish stocking Lake Qiandao Climate change Ecology QH540-549.5 Haojie Su Jiamin Pan Yuhao Feng Jia Yu Jiarui Liu Li Wang Yun Li Jun Chen Zhixu Wu Suhui Ma Jingyun Fang Ping Xie Stocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: Evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a Chinese reservoir |
| description |
Alien species invasions are considered to be one of the multiple key drivers that trigger ecological regime shifts in ecosystem structure and function. Predicting population collapse and understanding the self-reinforced feedback mechanisms that erode the resilience of native species are two major challenges in invasion ecology. However, to date, empirical evidence of species invasion-induced regime shifts remains scarce, and the minimum required data to generate early warning signals (EWSs) before critical transitions remains unclear, despite its importance for ecosystem management. By combining 80-year (i.e., 1936–2016) fishery data from Lake Qiandao and a theoretical competition model, we provide evidence that relative to nutrient enrichment and climate change, stocking alien fish species of silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Aristichthys nobtilis) is the most important driver leading to the collapse of local fish populations. Detectable EWSs indicated by the variance, autocorrelation and composite resilience indicators require at least ten years of data before an abrupt decline, demonstrating that a long-term ecological monitoring program is necessary for providing insight into resilience dynamics. A structural equation model (SEM) suggests that the combined effects of eutrophication, high water levels and carp stocking-induced water clarity decline may play an important role in the reduced fitness of local fish populations, which subsequently increase the carrying capacity of alien fish populations. Our results demonstrate that stocking alien carps result in competitive exclusion of local fish populations, especially in the current context of water eutrophication and global climate changes. Furthermore, quantifying the minimum required time series length with detectable EWS across various ecosystems should be further studied given that this information is critical for flexible management policies to take actions to avert the harmful transitions. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Haojie Su Jiamin Pan Yuhao Feng Jia Yu Jiarui Liu Li Wang Yun Li Jun Chen Zhixu Wu Suhui Ma Jingyun Fang Ping Xie |
| author_facet |
Haojie Su Jiamin Pan Yuhao Feng Jia Yu Jiarui Liu Li Wang Yun Li Jun Chen Zhixu Wu Suhui Ma Jingyun Fang Ping Xie |
| author_sort |
Haojie Su |
| title |
Stocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: Evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a Chinese reservoir |
| title_short |
Stocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: Evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a Chinese reservoir |
| title_full |
Stocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: Evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a Chinese reservoir |
| title_fullStr |
Stocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: Evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a Chinese reservoir |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Stocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: Evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a Chinese reservoir |
| title_sort |
stocking alien carp leads to regime shifts in native fish populations: evidence from long-term observation and ecological modeling of a chinese reservoir |
| publisher |
Elsevier |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/23ba884ac1ff4f2bbcc0234c0c9d0f63 |
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