Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Abstract Climate warming causes changes in permafrost distribution, which affects the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle and carbon flux in cold regions. In this study, the Surface Frost Number model was applied to examine permafrost distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) under the fo...

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Autores principales:	Qing Lu, Dongsheng Zhao, Shaohong Wu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/23c813809e9b476e9da85439296809fe
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:23c813809e9b476e9da85439296809fe2021-12-02T15:06:19ZSimulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau10.1038/s41598-017-04140-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/23c813809e9b476e9da85439296809fe2017-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-04140-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Climate warming causes changes in permafrost distribution, which affects the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle and carbon flux in cold regions. In this study, the Surface Frost Number model was applied to examine permafrost distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) under the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The Kappa statistic was used to evaluate model results by comparing simulations of baseline permafrost distribution (1981–2010) with the existing frozen soil maps. The comparison shows that the Surface Frost Number model is suitable for simulating the general characteristics of permafrost distribution on the QTP. Simulated results suggest that areas of permafrost degradation would be the smallest in the near-term (2011‒2040) with the rates of 17.17%, 18.07%, 12.95% and 15.66% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. The rate of permafrost degradation would be faster in the mid-term (2041‒2070), especially under the RCP8.5 scenario (about 41.42%). Areas of permafrost degradation would be the largest in the long-term (2071‒2099) relative to baseline conditions, with a modelled 64.31% decrease in permafrost distribution using the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results would help the decision‒making for engineering construction program on the QTP, and support local units in their efforts to adapt climate change.Qing LuDongsheng ZhaoShaohong WuNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Qing Lu Dongsheng Zhao Shaohong Wu Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
description	Abstract Climate warming causes changes in permafrost distribution, which affects the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle and carbon flux in cold regions. In this study, the Surface Frost Number model was applied to examine permafrost distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) under the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The Kappa statistic was used to evaluate model results by comparing simulations of baseline permafrost distribution (1981–2010) with the existing frozen soil maps. The comparison shows that the Surface Frost Number model is suitable for simulating the general characteristics of permafrost distribution on the QTP. Simulated results suggest that areas of permafrost degradation would be the smallest in the near-term (2011‒2040) with the rates of 17.17%, 18.07%, 12.95% and 15.66% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. The rate of permafrost degradation would be faster in the mid-term (2041‒2070), especially under the RCP8.5 scenario (about 41.42%). Areas of permafrost degradation would be the largest in the long-term (2071‒2099) relative to baseline conditions, with a modelled 64.31% decrease in permafrost distribution using the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results would help the decision‒making for engineering construction program on the QTP, and support local units in their efforts to adapt climate change.
format	article
author	Qing Lu Dongsheng Zhao Shaohong Wu
author_facet	Qing Lu Dongsheng Zhao Shaohong Wu
author_sort	Qing Lu
title	Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
title_short	Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
title_full	Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
title_fullStr	Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
title_full_unstemmed	Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
title_sort	simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the qinghai–tibet plateau
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/23c813809e9b476e9da85439296809fe
work_keys_str_mv	AT qinglu simulatedresponsesofpermafrostdistributiontoclimatechangeontheqinghaitibetplateau AT dongshengzhao simulatedresponsesofpermafrostdistributiontoclimatechangeontheqinghaitibetplateau AT shaohongwu simulatedresponsesofpermafrostdistributiontoclimatechangeontheqinghaitibetplateau
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Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

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