Simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan

Abstract A spatial susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model is developed to analyze the effects of restricting interregional mobility on the spatial spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in Japan. National and local governments have requested that residents refrain...

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Autor principal:	Keisuke Kondo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/243bef6561574babbfdc95401eecd608
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:243bef6561574babbfdc95401eecd6082021-12-02T17:27:19ZSimulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan10.1038/s41598-021-97170-12045-2322https://doaj.org/article/243bef6561574babbfdc95401eecd6082021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97170-1https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract A spatial susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model is developed to analyze the effects of restricting interregional mobility on the spatial spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in Japan. National and local governments have requested that residents refrain from traveling between prefectures during the state of emergency. However, the extent to which restricting interregional mobility prevents infection expansion is unclear. The spatial SEIR model describes the spatial spread pattern of COVID-19 infection when people commute or travel to a prefecture in the daytime and return to their residential prefecture at night. It is assumed that people are exposed to an infection risk during their daytime activities. The spatial spread of COVID-19 infection is simulated by integrating interregional mobility data. According to the simulation results, interregional mobility restrictions can prevent the geographical expansion of the infection. On the other hand, in urban prefectures with many infectious individuals, residents are exposed to higher infection risk when their interregional mobility is restricted. The simulation results also show that interregional mobility restrictions play a limited role in reducing the total number of infected individuals in Japan, suggesting that other non-pharmaceutical interventions should be implemented to reduce the epidemic size.Keisuke KondoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Keisuke Kondo Simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan
description	Abstract A spatial susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model is developed to analyze the effects of restricting interregional mobility on the spatial spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in Japan. National and local governments have requested that residents refrain from traveling between prefectures during the state of emergency. However, the extent to which restricting interregional mobility prevents infection expansion is unclear. The spatial SEIR model describes the spatial spread pattern of COVID-19 infection when people commute or travel to a prefecture in the daytime and return to their residential prefecture at night. It is assumed that people are exposed to an infection risk during their daytime activities. The spatial spread of COVID-19 infection is simulated by integrating interregional mobility data. According to the simulation results, interregional mobility restrictions can prevent the geographical expansion of the infection. On the other hand, in urban prefectures with many infectious individuals, residents are exposed to higher infection risk when their interregional mobility is restricted. The simulation results also show that interregional mobility restrictions play a limited role in reducing the total number of infected individuals in Japan, suggesting that other non-pharmaceutical interventions should be implemented to reduce the epidemic size.
format	article
author	Keisuke Kondo
author_facet	Keisuke Kondo
author_sort	Keisuke Kondo
title	Simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan
title_short	Simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan
title_full	Simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan
title_fullStr	Simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan
title_full_unstemmed	Simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan
title_sort	simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of covid-19 in japan
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/243bef6561574babbfdc95401eecd608
work_keys_str_mv	AT keisukekondo simulatingtheimpactsofinterregionalmobilityrestrictiononthespatialspreadofcovid19injapan
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Simulating the impacts of interregional mobility restriction on the spatial spread of COVID-19 in Japan

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