Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrow...

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Autores principales:	Kyle S Van Houtan, John M Halley
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2011
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba709
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba709
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba7092021-11-18T06:55:02ZLong-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0019043https://doaj.org/article/249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba7092011-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21589639/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.Kyle S Van HoutanJohn M HalleyPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 4, p e19043 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Kyle S Van Houtan John M Halley Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.
description	The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.
format	article
author	Kyle S Van Houtan John M Halley
author_facet	Kyle S Van Houtan John M Halley
author_sort	Kyle S Van Houtan
title	Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.
title_short	Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.
title_full	Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.
title_fullStr	Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.
title_full_unstemmed	Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.
title_sort	long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba709
work_keys_str_mv	AT kylesvanhoutan longtermclimateforcinginloggerheadseaturtlenesting AT johnmhalley longtermclimateforcinginloggerheadseaturtlenesting
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Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

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