Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Mobility restrictions have been identified as key non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of the SARS-COV-2 epidemics. However, these interventions present significant drawbacks to the social fabric and negative outcomes for the real economy. In this paper we propose a real-tim...

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Autores principales:	Alessandro Spelta, Paolo Pagnottoni
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2506720355684af9a6453ce5b79fe53f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2506720355684af9a6453ce5b79fe53f2021-12-02T16:05:54ZMobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic10.1038/s41598-021-92134-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2506720355684af9a6453ce5b79fe53f2021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92134-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Mobility restrictions have been identified as key non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of the SARS-COV-2 epidemics. However, these interventions present significant drawbacks to the social fabric and negative outcomes for the real economy. In this paper we propose a real-time monitoring framework for tracking the economic consequences of various forms of mobility reductions involving European countries. We adopt a granular representation of mobility patterns during both the first and second waves of SARS-COV-2 in Italy, Germany, France and Spain to provide an analytical characterization of the rate of losses of industrial production by means of a nowcasting methodology. Our approach exploits the information encoded in massive datasets of human mobility provided by Facebook and Google, which are published at higher frequencies than the target economic variables, in order to obtain an early estimate before the official data becomes available. Our results show, in first place, the ability of mobility-related policies to induce a contraction of mobility patterns across jurisdictions. Besides this contraction, we observe a substitution effect which increases mobility within jurisdictions. Secondly, we show how industrial production strictly follows the dynamics of population commuting patterns and of human mobility trends, which thus provide information on the day-by-day variations in countries’ economic activities. Our work, besides shedding light on how policy interventions targeted to induce a mobility contraction impact the real economy, constitutes a practical toolbox for helping governments to design appropriate and balanced policy actions aimed at containing the SARS-COV-2 spread, while mitigating the detrimental effect on the economy. Our study reveals how complex mobility patterns can have unequal consequences to economic losses across countries and call for a more tailored implementation of restrictions to balance the containment of contagion with the need to sustain economic activities.Alessandro SpeltaPaolo PagnottoniNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Alessandro Spelta Paolo Pagnottoni Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic
description	Abstract Mobility restrictions have been identified as key non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of the SARS-COV-2 epidemics. However, these interventions present significant drawbacks to the social fabric and negative outcomes for the real economy. In this paper we propose a real-time monitoring framework for tracking the economic consequences of various forms of mobility reductions involving European countries. We adopt a granular representation of mobility patterns during both the first and second waves of SARS-COV-2 in Italy, Germany, France and Spain to provide an analytical characterization of the rate of losses of industrial production by means of a nowcasting methodology. Our approach exploits the information encoded in massive datasets of human mobility provided by Facebook and Google, which are published at higher frequencies than the target economic variables, in order to obtain an early estimate before the official data becomes available. Our results show, in first place, the ability of mobility-related policies to induce a contraction of mobility patterns across jurisdictions. Besides this contraction, we observe a substitution effect which increases mobility within jurisdictions. Secondly, we show how industrial production strictly follows the dynamics of population commuting patterns and of human mobility trends, which thus provide information on the day-by-day variations in countries’ economic activities. Our work, besides shedding light on how policy interventions targeted to induce a mobility contraction impact the real economy, constitutes a practical toolbox for helping governments to design appropriate and balanced policy actions aimed at containing the SARS-COV-2 spread, while mitigating the detrimental effect on the economy. Our study reveals how complex mobility patterns can have unequal consequences to economic losses across countries and call for a more tailored implementation of restrictions to balance the containment of contagion with the need to sustain economic activities.
format	article
author	Alessandro Spelta Paolo Pagnottoni
author_facet	Alessandro Spelta Paolo Pagnottoni
author_sort	Alessandro Spelta
title	Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic
title_short	Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full	Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic
title_fullStr	Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed	Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic
title_sort	mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the covid-19 pandemic
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2506720355684af9a6453ce5b79fe53f
work_keys_str_mv	AT alessandrospelta mobilitybasedrealtimeeconomicmonitoringamidthecovid19pandemic AT paolopagnottoni mobilitybasedrealtimeeconomicmonitoringamidthecovid19pandemic
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Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic

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