A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability

In recent years, more and more record-breaking extreme weather/climate events have been reported from the Asian monsoon region, which have caused tremendous loss of property and lives. In this paper, we analyzed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability during the Holocene and evaluated future clim...

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Autores principales:	Liangcheng Tan, Yanzhen Li, Wenxia Han
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	Asian summer monsoon decadal variability Holocene ENSO future change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/25088ac4cb96474e86efa8b98ab60d47
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:25088ac4cb96474e86efa8b98ab60d472021-11-25T16:44:02ZA Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability10.3390/atmos121113912073-4433https://doaj.org/article/25088ac4cb96474e86efa8b98ab60d472021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1391https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433In recent years, more and more record-breaking extreme weather/climate events have been reported from the Asian monsoon region, which have caused tremendous loss of property and lives. In this paper, we analyzed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability during the Holocene and evaluated future climate extremes in monsoonal China from a paleoclimatic view. We found a significant regime transition to more chaotic fluctuations, with enhanced decadal variability of the ASM since 6.6 ka BP. We suggested the gradual intensification of ENSO was responsible for enhancing the ASM variability since the late mid-Holocene. If the observed relationship of monsoon mean intensity, ENSO and decadal variability of the ASM in the past 11.2 ka continue to exist, enhanced decadal variability of ASM in the future warming world will be expected. As a result, the intensification of daily precipitation extremes, superimposed on enhanced decadal variability of ASM, might make the record-breaking extremes more frequent in the future, increasing the risk of climate-related disasters in China.Liangcheng TanYanzhen LiWenxia HanMDPI AGarticleAsian summer monsoondecadal variabilityHoloceneENSOfuture changeMeteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENAtmosphere, Vol 12, Iss 1391, p 1391 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Asian summer monsoon decadal variability Holocene ENSO future change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Asian summer monsoon decadal variability Holocene ENSO future change Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Liangcheng Tan Yanzhen Li Wenxia Han A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability
description	In recent years, more and more record-breaking extreme weather/climate events have been reported from the Asian monsoon region, which have caused tremendous loss of property and lives. In this paper, we analyzed the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability during the Holocene and evaluated future climate extremes in monsoonal China from a paleoclimatic view. We found a significant regime transition to more chaotic fluctuations, with enhanced decadal variability of the ASM since 6.6 ka BP. We suggested the gradual intensification of ENSO was responsible for enhancing the ASM variability since the late mid-Holocene. If the observed relationship of monsoon mean intensity, ENSO and decadal variability of the ASM in the past 11.2 ka continue to exist, enhanced decadal variability of ASM in the future warming world will be expected. As a result, the intensification of daily precipitation extremes, superimposed on enhanced decadal variability of ASM, might make the record-breaking extremes more frequent in the future, increasing the risk of climate-related disasters in China.
format	article
author	Liangcheng Tan Yanzhen Li Wenxia Han
author_facet	Liangcheng Tan Yanzhen Li Wenxia Han
author_sort	Liangcheng Tan
title	A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability
title_short	A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability
title_full	A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability
title_fullStr	A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability
title_full_unstemmed	A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability
title_sort	paleoclimate prognosis of the future asian summer monsoon variability
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/25088ac4cb96474e86efa8b98ab60d47
work_keys_str_mv	AT liangchengtan apaleoclimateprognosisofthefutureasiansummermonsoonvariability AT yanzhenli apaleoclimateprognosisofthefutureasiansummermonsoonvariability AT wenxiahan apaleoclimateprognosisofthefutureasiansummermonsoonvariability AT liangchengtan paleoclimateprognosisofthefutureasiansummermonsoonvariability AT yanzhenli paleoclimateprognosisofthefutureasiansummermonsoonvariability AT wenxiahan paleoclimateprognosisofthefutureasiansummermonsoonvariability
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A Paleoclimate Prognosis of the Future Asian Summer Monsoon Variability

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