Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19

Abstract We developed a tool to guide decision-making for early triage of COVID-19 patients based on a predicted prognosis, using a Korean national cohort of 5,596 patients, and validated the developed tool with an external cohort of 445 patients treated in a single institution. Predictors chosen fo...

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Autores principales:	Chansik An, Hyun Cheol Oh, Jung Hyun Chang, Seung-Jin Oh, Jung Mo Lee, Chang Hoon Han, Seong Woo Kim
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/25ba8000e30344bf9d16df38ab4f0731
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:25ba8000e30344bf9d16df38ab4f07312021-11-14T12:20:14ZDevelopment and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-1910.1038/s41598-021-01452-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/25ba8000e30344bf9d16df38ab4f07312021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01452-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract We developed a tool to guide decision-making for early triage of COVID-19 patients based on a predicted prognosis, using a Korean national cohort of 5,596 patients, and validated the developed tool with an external cohort of 445 patients treated in a single institution. Predictors chosen for our model were older age, male sex, subjective fever, dyspnea, altered consciousness, temperature ≥ 37.5 °C, heart rate ≥ 100 bpm, systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, chronic kidney disease, cancer, dementia, anemia, leukocytosis, lymphocytopenia, and thrombocytopenia. In the external validation, when age, sex, symptoms, and underlying disease were used as predictors, the AUC used as an evaluation metric for our model’s performance was 0.850 in predicting whether a patient will require at least oxygen therapy and 0.833 in predicting whether a patient will need critical care or die from COVID-19. The AUCs improved to 0.871 and 0.864, respectively, when additional information on vital signs and blood test results were also used. In contrast, the protocols currently recommended in Korea showed AUCs less than 0.75. An application for calculating the prognostic score in COVID-19 patients based on the results of this study is presented on our website ( https://nhimc.shinyapps.io/ih-psc/ ), where the results of the validation ongoing in our institution are periodically updated.Chansik AnHyun Cheol OhJung Hyun ChangSeung-Jin OhJung Mo LeeChang Hoon HanSeong Woo KimNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Chansik An Hyun Cheol Oh Jung Hyun Chang Seung-Jin Oh Jung Mo Lee Chang Hoon Han Seong Woo Kim Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19
description	Abstract We developed a tool to guide decision-making for early triage of COVID-19 patients based on a predicted prognosis, using a Korean national cohort of 5,596 patients, and validated the developed tool with an external cohort of 445 patients treated in a single institution. Predictors chosen for our model were older age, male sex, subjective fever, dyspnea, altered consciousness, temperature ≥ 37.5 °C, heart rate ≥ 100 bpm, systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, chronic kidney disease, cancer, dementia, anemia, leukocytosis, lymphocytopenia, and thrombocytopenia. In the external validation, when age, sex, symptoms, and underlying disease were used as predictors, the AUC used as an evaluation metric for our model’s performance was 0.850 in predicting whether a patient will require at least oxygen therapy and 0.833 in predicting whether a patient will need critical care or die from COVID-19. The AUCs improved to 0.871 and 0.864, respectively, when additional information on vital signs and blood test results were also used. In contrast, the protocols currently recommended in Korea showed AUCs less than 0.75. An application for calculating the prognostic score in COVID-19 patients based on the results of this study is presented on our website ( https://nhimc.shinyapps.io/ih-psc/ ), where the results of the validation ongoing in our institution are periodically updated.
format	article
author	Chansik An Hyun Cheol Oh Jung Hyun Chang Seung-Jin Oh Jung Mo Lee Chang Hoon Han Seong Woo Kim
author_facet	Chansik An Hyun Cheol Oh Jung Hyun Chang Seung-Jin Oh Jung Mo Lee Chang Hoon Han Seong Woo Kim
author_sort	Chansik An
title	Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19
title_short	Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19
title_full	Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19
title_fullStr	Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed	Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19
title_sort	development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with covid-19
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/25ba8000e30344bf9d16df38ab4f0731
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Development and validation of a prognostic model for early triage of patients diagnosed with COVID-19

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