FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 2017

The article analyzes the threats to international security of Russia in 2017. It presents the analysis of the twelve situations, the development of which could have a significant effect on the interests of Russia in the field of international security. There is the most probable scenario for every s...

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Autores principales:	A. O. Bezrukov, N. J. Silaev, A. A. Sushentsov
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN RU
Publicado:	MGIMO University Press 2017
Materias:	international relations international security forecasting uncertainty of the future future scenarios russian-us relations analytical simulation scenario analysis International relations JZ2-6530
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/25e46320330e419da0884a278ab4dc4c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:25e46320330e419da0884a278ab4dc4c2021-11-23T14:50:39ZFORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 20172071-81602541-909910.24833/2071-8160-2017-2-53-226-253https://doaj.org/article/25e46320330e419da0884a278ab4dc4c2017-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/695https://doaj.org/toc/2071-8160https://doaj.org/toc/2541-9099The article analyzes the threats to international security of Russia in 2017. It presents the analysis of the twelve situations, the development of which could have a significant effect on the interests of Russia in the field of international security. There is the most probable scenario for every situation and a list of conditions of its occurrence. The objective of the forecast is reduction of uncertainty of the future and the promotion of reasonable hypotheses about its likely scenarios. The forecast task is to help decision-makers, mentally put yourself in a situation in which realized one of the scenarios for the future and to encourage them to calculate their possible actions. In the preparation of the forecast two scenario analysis tools were used: the allocation of two key variables, the ratio of which determines the spectrum of the analyzed scenarios, and the key events method, which consists of several stages and allows to evaluate the prospect of implementing the scenario observed in real time. Authors conclude that the USA with the new president will be forced to choose between maintaining global posture and keeping order at home, and the EU will be absorbed by internal issues. In 2017 for Russia is important to keep the positive dynamics in the Transatlantic and Grand Eurasia regions, and in the Middle East. For this purpose it is necessary to ignore the provocations – mainly in Europe. The source of a new crisis may be NATO members discouraged by lack of attention to them by the USA or allies of Russia.A. O. BezrukovN. J. SilaevA. A. SushentsovMGIMO University Pressarticleinternational relationsinternational securityforecastinguncertainty of the futurefuture scenariosrussian-us relationsanalytical simulationscenario analysisInternational relationsJZ2-6530ENRUVestnik MGIMO-Universiteta, Vol 0, Iss 2(53), Pp 226-253 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN RU
topic	international relations international security forecasting uncertainty of the future future scenarios russian-us relations analytical simulation scenario analysis International relations JZ2-6530
spellingShingle	international relations international security forecasting uncertainty of the future future scenarios russian-us relations analytical simulation scenario analysis International relations JZ2-6530 A. O. Bezrukov N. J. Silaev A. A. Sushentsov FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 2017
description	The article analyzes the threats to international security of Russia in 2017. It presents the analysis of the twelve situations, the development of which could have a significant effect on the interests of Russia in the field of international security. There is the most probable scenario for every situation and a list of conditions of its occurrence. The objective of the forecast is reduction of uncertainty of the future and the promotion of reasonable hypotheses about its likely scenarios. The forecast task is to help decision-makers, mentally put yourself in a situation in which realized one of the scenarios for the future and to encourage them to calculate their possible actions. In the preparation of the forecast two scenario analysis tools were used: the allocation of two key variables, the ratio of which determines the spectrum of the analyzed scenarios, and the key events method, which consists of several stages and allows to evaluate the prospect of implementing the scenario observed in real time. Authors conclude that the USA with the new president will be forced to choose between maintaining global posture and keeping order at home, and the EU will be absorbed by internal issues. In 2017 for Russia is important to keep the positive dynamics in the Transatlantic and Grand Eurasia regions, and in the Middle East. For this purpose it is necessary to ignore the provocations – mainly in Europe. The source of a new crisis may be NATO members discouraged by lack of attention to them by the USA or allies of Russia.
format	article
author	A. O. Bezrukov N. J. Silaev A. A. Sushentsov
author_facet	A. O. Bezrukov N. J. Silaev A. A. Sushentsov
author_sort	A. O. Bezrukov
title	FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 2017
title_short	FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 2017
title_full	FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 2017
title_fullStr	FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 2017
title_full_unstemmed	FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 2017
title_sort	forecast of international security threat of russia in 2017
publisher	MGIMO University Press
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/25e46320330e419da0884a278ab4dc4c
work_keys_str_mv	AT aobezrukov forecastofinternationalsecuritythreatofrussiain2017 AT njsilaev forecastofinternationalsecuritythreatofrussiain2017 AT aasushentsov forecastofinternationalsecuritythreatofrussiain2017
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FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREAT OF RUSSIA IN 2017

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