COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions

Abstract The future dynamics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in African countries is largely unclear. Simultaneously, required strengths of intervention measures are strongly debated because containing COVID-19 in favor of the weak health care system largely conflicts with socio...

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Autores principales:	Malte Schröder, Andreas Bossert, Moritz Kersting, Sebastian Aeffner, Justin Coetzee, Marc Timme, Jan Schlüter
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/25fd727cac304d45b42babe6e515b000
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:25fd727cac304d45b42babe6e515b0002021-12-02T11:37:23ZCOVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions10.1038/s41598-021-84487-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/25fd727cac304d45b42babe6e515b0002021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84487-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The future dynamics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in African countries is largely unclear. Simultaneously, required strengths of intervention measures are strongly debated because containing COVID-19 in favor of the weak health care system largely conflicts with socio-economic hardships. Here we analyze the impact of interventions on outbreak dynamics for South Africa, exhibiting the largest case numbers across sub-saharan Africa, before and after their national lockdown. Past data indicate strongly reduced but still supracritical growth after lockdown. Moreover, large-scale agent-based simulations given different future scenarios for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality with 1.14 million inhabitants, based on detailed activity and mobility survey data of about 10% of the population, similarly suggest that current containment may be insufficient to not overload local intensive care capacity. Yet, enduring, slightly stronger or more specific interventions, combined with sufficient compliance, may constitute a viable option for interventions for South Africa.Malte SchröderAndreas BossertMoritz KerstingSebastian AeffnerJustin CoetzeeMarc TimmeJan SchlüterNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Malte Schröder Andreas Bossert Moritz Kersting Sebastian Aeffner Justin Coetzee Marc Timme Jan Schlüter COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions
description	Abstract The future dynamics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in African countries is largely unclear. Simultaneously, required strengths of intervention measures are strongly debated because containing COVID-19 in favor of the weak health care system largely conflicts with socio-economic hardships. Here we analyze the impact of interventions on outbreak dynamics for South Africa, exhibiting the largest case numbers across sub-saharan Africa, before and after their national lockdown. Past data indicate strongly reduced but still supracritical growth after lockdown. Moreover, large-scale agent-based simulations given different future scenarios for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality with 1.14 million inhabitants, based on detailed activity and mobility survey data of about 10% of the population, similarly suggest that current containment may be insufficient to not overload local intensive care capacity. Yet, enduring, slightly stronger or more specific interventions, combined with sufficient compliance, may constitute a viable option for interventions for South Africa.
format	article
author	Malte Schröder Andreas Bossert Moritz Kersting Sebastian Aeffner Justin Coetzee Marc Timme Jan Schlüter
author_facet	Malte Schröder Andreas Bossert Moritz Kersting Sebastian Aeffner Justin Coetzee Marc Timme Jan Schlüter
author_sort	Malte Schröder
title	COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions
title_short	COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions
title_full	COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions
title_fullStr	COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions
title_full_unstemmed	COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions
title_sort	covid-19 in south africa: outbreak despite interventions
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/25fd727cac304d45b42babe6e515b000
work_keys_str_mv	AT malteschroder covid19insouthafricaoutbreakdespiteinterventions AT andreasbossert covid19insouthafricaoutbreakdespiteinterventions AT moritzkersting covid19insouthafricaoutbreakdespiteinterventions AT sebastianaeffner covid19insouthafricaoutbreakdespiteinterventions AT justincoetzee covid19insouthafricaoutbreakdespiteinterventions AT marctimme covid19insouthafricaoutbreakdespiteinterventions AT janschluter covid19insouthafricaoutbreakdespiteinterventions
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COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions

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