Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is a computational technique widely used in exposure and risk assessment. However, the result of traditional health risk assessment based on the MCS method has always been questioned due to the uncertainty introduced in parameter estimation and the difficulty in result v...

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Autores principales:	Ning Qin, Ayibota Tuerxunbieke, Qin Wang, Xing Chen, Rong Hou, Xiangyu Xu, Yunwei Liu, Dongqun Xu, Shu Tao, Xiaoli Duan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	risk assessment Monte Carlo simulation PAHs exposure parameter sensitivity analysis Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/26317ecd5f5f4fc2b7f077a93e1f0fdc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:26317ecd5f5f4fc2b7f077a93e1f0fdc2021-11-11T16:15:31ZKey Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation10.3390/ijerph1821111061660-46011661-7827https://doaj.org/article/26317ecd5f5f4fc2b7f077a93e1f0fdc2021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/21/11106https://doaj.org/toc/1661-7827https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is a computational technique widely used in exposure and risk assessment. However, the result of traditional health risk assessment based on the MCS method has always been questioned due to the uncertainty introduced in parameter estimation and the difficulty in result validation. Herein, data from a large-scale investigation of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure was used to explore the key factors for improving the MCS method. Research participants were selected using a statistical sampling method in a typical PAH polluted city. Atmospheric PAH concentrations from 25 sampling sites in the area were detected by GC-MS and exposure parameters of participants were collected by field measurement. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) of participants was calculated based on the measured data and considered to be the actual carcinogenic risk of the population. Predicted risks were evaluated by traditional assessment method based on MCS and three improved models including concentration-adjusted, age-stratified, and correlated-parameter-adjusted Monte Carlo methods. The goodness of fit of the models was evaluated quantitatively by comparing with the actual risk. The results showed that the average risk derived by traditional and age-stratified Monte Carlo simulation was 2.6 times higher, and the standard deviation was 3.7 times higher than the actual values. In contrast, the predicted risks of concentration- and correlated-parameter-adjusted models were in good agreement with the actual ILCR. The results of the comparison suggested that accurate simulation of exposure concentration and adjustment of correlated parameters could greatly improve the MCS. The research also reveals that the social factors related to exposure and potential relationship between variables are important issues affecting risk assessment, which require full consideration in assessment and further study in future research.Ning QinAyibota TuerxunbiekeQin WangXing ChenRong HouXiangyu XuYunwei LiuDongqun XuShu TaoXiaoli DuanMDPI AGarticlerisk assessmentMonte Carlo simulationPAHsexposure parametersensitivity analysisMedicineRENInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 11106, p 11106 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	risk assessment Monte Carlo simulation PAHs exposure parameter sensitivity analysis Medicine R
spellingShingle	risk assessment Monte Carlo simulation PAHs exposure parameter sensitivity analysis Medicine R Ning Qin Ayibota Tuerxunbieke Qin Wang Xing Chen Rong Hou Xiangyu Xu Yunwei Liu Dongqun Xu Shu Tao Xiaoli Duan Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation
description	Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is a computational technique widely used in exposure and risk assessment. However, the result of traditional health risk assessment based on the MCS method has always been questioned due to the uncertainty introduced in parameter estimation and the difficulty in result validation. Herein, data from a large-scale investigation of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure was used to explore the key factors for improving the MCS method. Research participants were selected using a statistical sampling method in a typical PAH polluted city. Atmospheric PAH concentrations from 25 sampling sites in the area were detected by GC-MS and exposure parameters of participants were collected by field measurement. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) of participants was calculated based on the measured data and considered to be the actual carcinogenic risk of the population. Predicted risks were evaluated by traditional assessment method based on MCS and three improved models including concentration-adjusted, age-stratified, and correlated-parameter-adjusted Monte Carlo methods. The goodness of fit of the models was evaluated quantitatively by comparing with the actual risk. The results showed that the average risk derived by traditional and age-stratified Monte Carlo simulation was 2.6 times higher, and the standard deviation was 3.7 times higher than the actual values. In contrast, the predicted risks of concentration- and correlated-parameter-adjusted models were in good agreement with the actual ILCR. The results of the comparison suggested that accurate simulation of exposure concentration and adjustment of correlated parameters could greatly improve the MCS. The research also reveals that the social factors related to exposure and potential relationship between variables are important issues affecting risk assessment, which require full consideration in assessment and further study in future research.
format	article
author	Ning Qin Ayibota Tuerxunbieke Qin Wang Xing Chen Rong Hou Xiangyu Xu Yunwei Liu Dongqun Xu Shu Tao Xiaoli Duan
author_facet	Ning Qin Ayibota Tuerxunbieke Qin Wang Xing Chen Rong Hou Xiangyu Xu Yunwei Liu Dongqun Xu Shu Tao Xiaoli Duan
author_sort	Ning Qin
title	Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation
title_short	Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation
title_full	Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation
title_fullStr	Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation
title_full_unstemmed	Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation
title_sort	key factors for improving the carcinogenic risk assessment of pah inhalation exposure by monte carlo simulation
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/26317ecd5f5f4fc2b7f077a93e1f0fdc
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Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation

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