A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19

Abstract The understanding of the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavior is an important and essential point to control infectious. Disease outbreak can be influenced by social distancing and vaccination. In this study, we introduce two compartmental models to derive the epidemic cu...

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Autores principales:	Mohammadali Dashtbali, Mehdi Mirzaie
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/267fe5f1180441f7b910be68f5baed08
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:267fe5f1180441f7b910be68f5baed082021-12-02T15:51:12ZA compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-1910.1038/s41598-021-86873-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/267fe5f1180441f7b910be68f5baed082021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86873-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The understanding of the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavior is an important and essential point to control infectious. Disease outbreak can be influenced by social distancing and vaccination. In this study, we introduce two compartmental models to derive the epidemic curve and analyze the individual’s behavior in spreading and controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. The first model includes Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Hospitalized, Recovered and Death compartments and in the second model, we added a new compartment namely, semi-susceptible individuals that are assumed to be more immune than the susceptible. A comparison of the two models shows that the second model provides a better fit to the daily infected cases from Egypt, Belgium, Japan, Nigeria, Italy, and Germany released by WHO. Finally, we added a vaccinated term to the model to predict how vaccination could control the epidemic. The model was applied on the record data from WHO.Mohammadali DashtbaliMehdi MirzaieNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mohammadali Dashtbali Mehdi Mirzaie A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19
description	Abstract The understanding of the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavior is an important and essential point to control infectious. Disease outbreak can be influenced by social distancing and vaccination. In this study, we introduce two compartmental models to derive the epidemic curve and analyze the individual’s behavior in spreading and controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. The first model includes Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Hospitalized, Recovered and Death compartments and in the second model, we added a new compartment namely, semi-susceptible individuals that are assumed to be more immune than the susceptible. A comparison of the two models shows that the second model provides a better fit to the daily infected cases from Egypt, Belgium, Japan, Nigeria, Italy, and Germany released by WHO. Finally, we added a vaccinated term to the model to predict how vaccination could control the epidemic. The model was applied on the record data from WHO.
format	article
author	Mohammadali Dashtbali Mehdi Mirzaie
author_facet	Mohammadali Dashtbali Mehdi Mirzaie
author_sort	Mohammadali Dashtbali
title	A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19
title_short	A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19
title_full	A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19
title_fullStr	A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed	A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19
title_sort	compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling covid-19
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/267fe5f1180441f7b910be68f5baed08
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A compartmental model that predicts the effect of social distancing and vaccination on controlling COVID-19

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