Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China

Abstract The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak that emerged in late 2019 has posed a severe threat to human health and social and economic development, and thus has become a major public health crisis affecting the world. The spread of COVID-19 in population and regions is a typical ge...

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Autores principales:	Jinlong Shi, Xing Gao, Shuyan Xue, Fengqing Li, Qifan Nie, Yangfan Lv, Jiaobei Wang, Tingting Xu, Guoxu Du, Gang Li
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/26b3d51918664f628ffa0fbd1ce3ebe0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:26b3d51918664f628ffa0fbd1ce3ebe02021-12-02T14:37:07ZSpatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China10.1038/s41598-021-86188-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/26b3d51918664f628ffa0fbd1ce3ebe02021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86188-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak that emerged in late 2019 has posed a severe threat to human health and social and economic development, and thus has become a major public health crisis affecting the world. The spread of COVID-19 in population and regions is a typical geographical process, which is worth discussing from the geographical perspective. This paper focuses on Shandong province, which has a high incidence, though the first Chinese confirmed case was reported from Hubei province. Based on the data of reported confirmed cases and the detailed information of cases collected manually, we used text analysis, mathematical statistics and spatial analysis to reveal the demographic characteristics of confirmed cases and the spatio-temporal evolution process of the epidemic, and to explore the comprehensive mechanism of epidemic evolution and prevention and control. The results show that: (1) the incidence rate of COVID-19 in Shandong is 0.76/100,000. The majority of confirmed cases are old and middle-aged people who are infected by the intra-province diffusion, followed by young and middle-aged people who are infected outside the province. (2) Up to February 5, the number of daily confirmed cases shows a trend of “rapid increase before slowing down”, among which, the changes of age and gender are closely related to population migration, epidemic characteristics and intervention measures. (3) Affected by the regional economy and population, the spatial distribution of the confirmed cases is obviously unbalanced, with the cluster pattern of “high–low” and “low–high”. (4) The evolution of the migration pattern, affected by the geographical location of Wuhan and Chinese traditional culture, is dominated by “cross-provincial” and “intra-provincial” direct flow, and generally shows the trend of “southwest → northeast”. Finally, combined with the targeted countermeasures of “source-flow-sink”, the comprehensive mechanism of COVID-19 epidemic evolution and prevention and control in Shandong is revealed. External and internal prevention and control measures are also figured out.Jinlong ShiXing GaoShuyan XueFengqing LiQifan NieYangfan LvJiaobei WangTingting XuGuoxu DuGang LiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jinlong Shi Xing Gao Shuyan Xue Fengqing Li Qifan Nie Yangfan Lv Jiaobei Wang Tingting Xu Guoxu Du Gang Li Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China
description	Abstract The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak that emerged in late 2019 has posed a severe threat to human health and social and economic development, and thus has become a major public health crisis affecting the world. The spread of COVID-19 in population and regions is a typical geographical process, which is worth discussing from the geographical perspective. This paper focuses on Shandong province, which has a high incidence, though the first Chinese confirmed case was reported from Hubei province. Based on the data of reported confirmed cases and the detailed information of cases collected manually, we used text analysis, mathematical statistics and spatial analysis to reveal the demographic characteristics of confirmed cases and the spatio-temporal evolution process of the epidemic, and to explore the comprehensive mechanism of epidemic evolution and prevention and control. The results show that: (1) the incidence rate of COVID-19 in Shandong is 0.76/100,000. The majority of confirmed cases are old and middle-aged people who are infected by the intra-province diffusion, followed by young and middle-aged people who are infected outside the province. (2) Up to February 5, the number of daily confirmed cases shows a trend of “rapid increase before slowing down”, among which, the changes of age and gender are closely related to population migration, epidemic characteristics and intervention measures. (3) Affected by the regional economy and population, the spatial distribution of the confirmed cases is obviously unbalanced, with the cluster pattern of “high–low” and “low–high”. (4) The evolution of the migration pattern, affected by the geographical location of Wuhan and Chinese traditional culture, is dominated by “cross-provincial” and “intra-provincial” direct flow, and generally shows the trend of “southwest → northeast”. Finally, combined with the targeted countermeasures of “source-flow-sink”, the comprehensive mechanism of COVID-19 epidemic evolution and prevention and control in Shandong is revealed. External and internal prevention and control measures are also figured out.
format	article
author	Jinlong Shi Xing Gao Shuyan Xue Fengqing Li Qifan Nie Yangfan Lv Jiaobei Wang Tingting Xu Guoxu Du Gang Li
author_facet	Jinlong Shi Xing Gao Shuyan Xue Fengqing Li Qifan Nie Yangfan Lv Jiaobei Wang Tingting Xu Guoxu Du Gang Li
author_sort	Jinlong Shi
title	Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China
title_short	Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China
title_full	Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China
title_fullStr	Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China
title_full_unstemmed	Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China
title_sort	spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the covid-19 epidemic in shandong province, china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/26b3d51918664f628ffa0fbd1ce3ebe0
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Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China

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