Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach

Abstract In the past quarter-century, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) experienced several devastating tropical cyclones that led to widespread flooding and damage. Historical climate records reflect an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across the eastern U.S., w...

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Autores principales:	Anna M. Jalowska, Tanya L. Spero, Jared H. Bowden
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/278d931f23c64b8487adf6a43cf742ea
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:278d931f23c64b8487adf6a43cf742ea
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:278d931f23c64b8487adf6a43cf742ea2021-12-02T11:44:50ZProjecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach10.1038/s41612-021-00176-92397-3722https://doaj.org/article/278d931f23c64b8487adf6a43cf742ea2021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00176-9https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722Abstract In the past quarter-century, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) experienced several devastating tropical cyclones that led to widespread flooding and damage. Historical climate records reflect an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across the eastern U.S., which is projected to continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century. Potential changes to extreme rainfall across ENC are explored and quantified for 2025–2100 for three tropical cyclones using an approach based on relative changes in future extreme rainfall frequencies (return periods) from dynamically downscaled projections. Maximum rainfall intensities at ‘2100’ could increase locally by 168%, with widespread regional increases in total rainfall up to 44%. Although these magnitudes exceed the consensus in the literature, the values here are comparable to the most extreme rainfall events observed in the U.S. during the early twenty-first century, which suggests that the intensity of projected future events is already a present-day reality.Anna M. JalowskaTanya L. SperoJared H. BowdenNature PortfolioarticleEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350Meteorology. ClimatologyQC851-999ENnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999
spellingShingle	Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Anna M. Jalowska Tanya L. Spero Jared H. Bowden Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach
description	Abstract In the past quarter-century, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) experienced several devastating tropical cyclones that led to widespread flooding and damage. Historical climate records reflect an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across the eastern U.S., which is projected to continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century. Potential changes to extreme rainfall across ENC are explored and quantified for 2025–2100 for three tropical cyclones using an approach based on relative changes in future extreme rainfall frequencies (return periods) from dynamically downscaled projections. Maximum rainfall intensities at ‘2100’ could increase locally by 168%, with widespread regional increases in total rainfall up to 44%. Although these magnitudes exceed the consensus in the literature, the values here are comparable to the most extreme rainfall events observed in the U.S. during the early twenty-first century, which suggests that the intensity of projected future events is already a present-day reality.
format	article
author	Anna M. Jalowska Tanya L. Spero Jared H. Bowden
author_facet	Anna M. Jalowska Tanya L. Spero Jared H. Bowden
author_sort	Anna M. Jalowska
title	Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach
title_short	Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach
title_full	Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach
title_fullStr	Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach
title_full_unstemmed	Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach
title_sort	projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/278d931f23c64b8487adf6a43cf742ea
work_keys_str_mv	AT annamjalowska projectingchangesinextremerainfallfromthreetropicalcyclonesusingthedesignrainfallapproach AT tanyalspero projectingchangesinextremerainfallfromthreetropicalcyclonesusingthedesignrainfallapproach AT jaredhbowden projectingchangesinextremerainfallfromthreetropicalcyclonesusingthedesignrainfallapproach
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Projecting changes in extreme rainfall from three tropical cyclones using the design-rainfall approach

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