The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?

We analyze whether and to what extent strategies employed by governments to fight the COVID-19 pandemic made a difference for GDP growth developments in 2020. Based on the strength and speed with which governments imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) when confronted with waves of infectio...

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Autores principales: Michael König, Adalbert Winkler
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Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
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Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/27cdcd06a45c4c419050b628041bb30b
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spelling oai:doaj.org-article:27cdcd06a45c4c419050b628041bb30b2021-12-02T20:16:25ZThe impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0259362https://doaj.org/article/27cdcd06a45c4c419050b628041bb30b2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259362https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203We analyze whether and to what extent strategies employed by governments to fight the COVID-19 pandemic made a difference for GDP growth developments in 2020. Based on the strength and speed with which governments imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) when confronted with waves of infections we distinguish between countries pursuing an elimination strategy and countries following a suppression / mitigation strategy. For a sample of 44 countries fixed effect panel regression results show that NPI changes conducted by elimination strategy countries had a less severe effect on GDP growth than NPI changes in suppression / mitigation strategy countries: strategy matters. However, this result is sensitive to the countries identified as "elimination countries" and to the sample composition. Moreover, we find that exogenous country characteristics drive the choice of strategy. At the same time our results show that countries successfully applying the elimination strategy achieved better health outcomes than their peers without having to accept lower growth.Michael KönigAdalbert WinklerPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11, p e0259362 (2021)
institution DOAJ
collection DOAJ
language EN
topic Medicine
R
Science
Q
spellingShingle Medicine
R
Science
Q
Michael König
Adalbert Winkler
The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?
description We analyze whether and to what extent strategies employed by governments to fight the COVID-19 pandemic made a difference for GDP growth developments in 2020. Based on the strength and speed with which governments imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) when confronted with waves of infections we distinguish between countries pursuing an elimination strategy and countries following a suppression / mitigation strategy. For a sample of 44 countries fixed effect panel regression results show that NPI changes conducted by elimination strategy countries had a less severe effect on GDP growth than NPI changes in suppression / mitigation strategy countries: strategy matters. However, this result is sensitive to the countries identified as "elimination countries" and to the sample composition. Moreover, we find that exogenous country characteristics drive the choice of strategy. At the same time our results show that countries successfully applying the elimination strategy achieved better health outcomes than their peers without having to accept lower growth.
format article
author Michael König
Adalbert Winkler
author_facet Michael König
Adalbert Winkler
author_sort Michael König
title The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?
title_short The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?
title_full The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?
title_fullStr The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?
title_full_unstemmed The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?
title_sort impact of government responses to the covid-19 pandemic on gdp growth: does strategy matter?
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate 2021
url https://doaj.org/article/27cdcd06a45c4c419050b628041bb30b
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