Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract This paper studies the social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We propose a control scheme to develop herd immunity while satisfying the following two basic requirements for a viable policy option. The first requirem...

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Autores principales:	Takashi Akamatsu, Takeshi Nagae, Minoru Osawa, Koki Satsukawa, Takara Sakai, Daijiro Mizutani
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/27ff02786bb5478f9fc95e93679ebd04
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:27ff02786bb5478f9fc95e93679ebd042021-12-02T13:57:05ZModel-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic10.1038/s41598-021-81630-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/27ff02786bb5478f9fc95e93679ebd042021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81630-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract This paper studies the social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We propose a control scheme to develop herd immunity while satisfying the following two basic requirements for a viable policy option. The first requirement is social acceptability: the overall deaths should be minimized for social acceptance. The second is feasibility: the healthcare system should not be overwhelmed to avoid various adverse effects. To exploit the fact that the disease severity increases considerably with age and comorbidities, we assume that some focused protection measures for those high-risk individuals are implemented and the disease does not spread within the high-risk population. Because the protected population has higher severity ratios than the unprotected population by definition, the protective measure can substantially reduce mortality in the whole population and also avoid the collapse of the healthcare system. Based on a simple susceptible-infected-recovered model, social acceptability and feasibility of the proposed strategy are summarized into two easily computable conditions. The proposed framework can be applied to various populations for studying the viability of herd immunity strategies against COVID-19. For Japan, herd immunity may be developed by the proposed scheme if $${\mathcal {R}}_0 \le 2.0$$ R 0 ≤ 2.0 and the severity rates of the disease are 1/10 times smaller than the previously reported value, although as high mortality as seasonal influenza is expected.Takashi AkamatsuTakeshi NagaeMinoru OsawaKoki SatsukawaTakara SakaiDaijiro MizutaniNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Takashi Akamatsu Takeshi Nagae Minoru Osawa Koki Satsukawa Takara Sakai Daijiro Mizutani Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic
description	Abstract This paper studies the social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We propose a control scheme to develop herd immunity while satisfying the following two basic requirements for a viable policy option. The first requirement is social acceptability: the overall deaths should be minimized for social acceptance. The second is feasibility: the healthcare system should not be overwhelmed to avoid various adverse effects. To exploit the fact that the disease severity increases considerably with age and comorbidities, we assume that some focused protection measures for those high-risk individuals are implemented and the disease does not spread within the high-risk population. Because the protected population has higher severity ratios than the unprotected population by definition, the protective measure can substantially reduce mortality in the whole population and also avoid the collapse of the healthcare system. Based on a simple susceptible-infected-recovered model, social acceptability and feasibility of the proposed strategy are summarized into two easily computable conditions. The proposed framework can be applied to various populations for studying the viability of herd immunity strategies against COVID-19. For Japan, herd immunity may be developed by the proposed scheme if $${\mathcal {R}}_0 \le 2.0$$ R 0 ≤ 2.0 and the severity rates of the disease are 1/10 times smaller than the previously reported value, although as high mortality as seasonal influenza is expected.
format	article
author	Takashi Akamatsu Takeshi Nagae Minoru Osawa Koki Satsukawa Takara Sakai Daijiro Mizutani
author_facet	Takashi Akamatsu Takeshi Nagae Minoru Osawa Koki Satsukawa Takara Sakai Daijiro Mizutani
author_sort	Takashi Akamatsu
title	Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic
title_short	Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full	Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic
title_fullStr	Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed	Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic
title_sort	model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the covid-19 pandemic
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/27ff02786bb5478f9fc95e93679ebd04
work_keys_str_mv	AT takashiakamatsu modelbasedanalysisonsocialacceptabilityandfeasibilityofafocusedprotectionstrategyagainstthecovid19pandemic AT takeshinagae modelbasedanalysisonsocialacceptabilityandfeasibilityofafocusedprotectionstrategyagainstthecovid19pandemic AT minoruosawa modelbasedanalysisonsocialacceptabilityandfeasibilityofafocusedprotectionstrategyagainstthecovid19pandemic AT kokisatsukawa modelbasedanalysisonsocialacceptabilityandfeasibilityofafocusedprotectionstrategyagainstthecovid19pandemic AT takarasakai modelbasedanalysisonsocialacceptabilityandfeasibilityofafocusedprotectionstrategyagainstthecovid19pandemic AT daijiromizutani modelbasedanalysisonsocialacceptabilityandfeasibilityofafocusedprotectionstrategyagainstthecovid19pandemic
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Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic

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