Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England

Abstract The National Health Service (NHS) Pathways triage system collates data on enquiries to 111 and 999 services in England. Since the 18th of March 2020, these data have been made publically available for potential COVID-19 symptoms self-reported by members of the public. Trends in such reports...

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Autores principales:	Quentin J. Leclerc, Emily S. Nightingale, Sam Abbott, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Thibaut Jombart
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2831dc14c35c4c80859086a8e7f8ff64
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2831dc14c35c4c80859086a8e7f8ff642021-12-02T13:27:04ZAnalysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England10.1038/s41598-021-86266-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2831dc14c35c4c80859086a8e7f8ff642021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86266-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The National Health Service (NHS) Pathways triage system collates data on enquiries to 111 and 999 services in England. Since the 18th of March 2020, these data have been made publically available for potential COVID-19 symptoms self-reported by members of the public. Trends in such reports over time are likely to reflect behaviour of the ongoing epidemic within the wider community, potentially capturing valuable information across a broader severity profile of cases than hospital admission data. We present a fully reproducible analysis of temporal trends in NHS Pathways reports until 14th May 2020, nationally and regionally, and demonstrate that rates of growth/decline and effective reproduction number estimated from these data may be useful in monitoring transmission. This is a particularly pressing issue as lockdown restrictions begin to be lifted and evidence of disease resurgence must be constantly reassessed. We further assess the correlation between NHS Pathways reports and a publicly available NHS dataset of COVID-19-associated deaths in England, finding that enquiries to 111/999 were strongly associated with daily deaths reported 16 days later. Our results highlight the potential of NHS Pathways as the basis of an early warning system. However, this dataset relies on self-reported symptoms, which are at risk of being severely biased. Further detailed work is therefore necessary to investigate potential behavioural issues which might otherwise explain our conclusions.Quentin J. LeclercEmily S. NightingaleSam AbbottCMMID COVID-19 Working GroupThibaut JombartNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Quentin J. Leclerc Emily S. Nightingale Sam Abbott CMMID COVID-19 Working Group Thibaut Jombart Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England
description	Abstract The National Health Service (NHS) Pathways triage system collates data on enquiries to 111 and 999 services in England. Since the 18th of March 2020, these data have been made publically available for potential COVID-19 symptoms self-reported by members of the public. Trends in such reports over time are likely to reflect behaviour of the ongoing epidemic within the wider community, potentially capturing valuable information across a broader severity profile of cases than hospital admission data. We present a fully reproducible analysis of temporal trends in NHS Pathways reports until 14th May 2020, nationally and regionally, and demonstrate that rates of growth/decline and effective reproduction number estimated from these data may be useful in monitoring transmission. This is a particularly pressing issue as lockdown restrictions begin to be lifted and evidence of disease resurgence must be constantly reassessed. We further assess the correlation between NHS Pathways reports and a publicly available NHS dataset of COVID-19-associated deaths in England, finding that enquiries to 111/999 were strongly associated with daily deaths reported 16 days later. Our results highlight the potential of NHS Pathways as the basis of an early warning system. However, this dataset relies on self-reported symptoms, which are at risk of being severely biased. Further detailed work is therefore necessary to investigate potential behavioural issues which might otherwise explain our conclusions.
format	article
author	Quentin J. Leclerc Emily S. Nightingale Sam Abbott CMMID COVID-19 Working Group Thibaut Jombart
author_facet	Quentin J. Leclerc Emily S. Nightingale Sam Abbott CMMID COVID-19 Working Group Thibaut Jombart
author_sort	Quentin J. Leclerc
title	Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England
title_short	Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England
title_full	Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England
title_fullStr	Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England
title_full_unstemmed	Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England
title_sort	analysis of temporal trends in potential covid-19 cases reported through nhs pathways england
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2831dc14c35c4c80859086a8e7f8ff64
work_keys_str_mv	AT quentinjleclerc analysisoftemporaltrendsinpotentialcovid19casesreportedthroughnhspathwaysengland AT emilysnightingale analysisoftemporaltrendsinpotentialcovid19casesreportedthroughnhspathwaysengland AT samabbott analysisoftemporaltrendsinpotentialcovid19casesreportedthroughnhspathwaysengland AT cmmidcovid19workinggroup analysisoftemporaltrendsinpotentialcovid19casesreportedthroughnhspathwaysengland AT thibautjombart analysisoftemporaltrendsinpotentialcovid19casesreportedthroughnhspathwaysengland
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Analysis of temporal trends in potential COVID-19 cases reported through NHS Pathways England

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