Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.

<h4>Background</h4>Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impa...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Xiaodong Huang, Gail Williams, Archie C A Clements, Wenbiao Hu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/28fffe1031c64cfa823c68f0c81eef7f
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:28fffe1031c64cfa823c68f0c81eef7f
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:28fffe1031c64cfa823c68f0c81eef7f2021-11-18T08:42:05ZImported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0081887https://doaj.org/article/28fffe1031c64cfa823c68f0c81eef7f2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24349148/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system.<h4>Methodology/principal finds</h4>Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67).<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.Xiaodong HuangGail WilliamsArchie C A ClementsWenbiao HuPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 12, p e81887 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Xiaodong Huang Gail Williams Archie C A Clements Wenbiao Hu Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system.<h4>Methodology/principal finds</h4>Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67).<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.
format	article
author	Xiaodong Huang Gail Williams Archie C A Clements Wenbiao Hu
author_facet	Xiaodong Huang Gail Williams Archie C A Clements Wenbiao Hu
author_sort	Xiaodong Huang
title	Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
title_short	Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
title_full	Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
title_fullStr	Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
title_full_unstemmed	Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
title_sort	imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in cairns, australia.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/28fffe1031c64cfa823c68f0c81eef7f
work_keys_str_mv	AT xiaodonghuang importeddenguecasesweathervariationandautochthonousdengueincidenceincairnsaustralia AT gailwilliams importeddenguecasesweathervariationandautochthonousdengueincidenceincairnsaustralia AT archiecaclements importeddenguecasesweathervariationandautochthonousdengueincidenceincairnsaustralia AT wenbiaohu importeddenguecasesweathervariationandautochthonousdengueincidenceincairnsaustralia
_version_	1718421434440613888

Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.

Ejemplares similares