Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms

The Nigerian Total Electron Content (NIGTEC) is a regional neural network-based model developed by the Nigerian Centre for Atmospheric Research to predict the Total Electron Content (TEC) at any location over Nigeria. The addition of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index as one of NIGTEC's inp...

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Autores principales:	Paul Obiakara Amaechi, Ibifubara Humphrey, David Adeyinka Adewoyin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2021
Materias:	Global navigation satellite system Total electron content Geomagnetic storm Nigerian Total Electron Content (NIGTEC) Geodesy QB275-343 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/294c8bf74a4e4eb4aa6839f9b429e2d4
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:294c8bf74a4e4eb4aa6839f9b429e2d4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:294c8bf74a4e4eb4aa6839f9b429e2d42021-11-18T04:46:13ZAssessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms1674-984710.1016/j.geog.2021.09.003https://doaj.org/article/294c8bf74a4e4eb4aa6839f9b429e2d42021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674984721000689https://doaj.org/toc/1674-9847The Nigerian Total Electron Content (NIGTEC) is a regional neural network-based model developed by the Nigerian Centre for Atmospheric Research to predict the Total Electron Content (TEC) at any location over Nigeria. The addition of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index as one of NIGTEC's input layer neurons raises a question of its accuracy during geomagnetic storms. In this paper, the capability of NIGTEC in predicting the variability of TEC during geomagnetic storms has been assessed. TEC data predicted by NIGTEC is compared with those derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) over Lagos (6.5oN, 3.4oE) and Toro (10.1oN, 9.12oE) during the intense storms in March 2012 and 2013. The model's predictive capability is evaluated in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). NIGTEC reproduced a fairly good storm time morphology in VTEC driven by the prompt penetration electric field and the increase in thermospheric O/N2. Nevertheless, it failed to predict the increase in TEC after the intense sudden impulse of 60 nT on 8 March 2012. And it could not capture the changes in VTEC driven by the storm time equatorward neutral wind especially during 18:00–24:00 UT. Consequently, the RMSEs were higher during this time window, and the highest RMSE value was obtained during the most intense storm in March 2012.Paul Obiakara AmaechiIbifubara HumphreyDavid Adeyinka AdewoyinKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.articleGlobal navigation satellite systemTotal electron contentGeomagnetic stormNigerian Total Electron Content (NIGTEC)GeodesyQB275-343Geophysics. Cosmic physicsQC801-809ENGeodesy and Geodynamics, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 413-423 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Global navigation satellite system Total electron content Geomagnetic storm Nigerian Total Electron Content (NIGTEC) Geodesy QB275-343 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809
spellingShingle	Global navigation satellite system Total electron content Geomagnetic storm Nigerian Total Electron Content (NIGTEC) Geodesy QB275-343 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 Paul Obiakara Amaechi Ibifubara Humphrey David Adeyinka Adewoyin Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms
description	The Nigerian Total Electron Content (NIGTEC) is a regional neural network-based model developed by the Nigerian Centre for Atmospheric Research to predict the Total Electron Content (TEC) at any location over Nigeria. The addition of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index as one of NIGTEC's input layer neurons raises a question of its accuracy during geomagnetic storms. In this paper, the capability of NIGTEC in predicting the variability of TEC during geomagnetic storms has been assessed. TEC data predicted by NIGTEC is compared with those derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) over Lagos (6.5oN, 3.4oE) and Toro (10.1oN, 9.12oE) during the intense storms in March 2012 and 2013. The model's predictive capability is evaluated in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). NIGTEC reproduced a fairly good storm time morphology in VTEC driven by the prompt penetration electric field and the increase in thermospheric O/N2. Nevertheless, it failed to predict the increase in TEC after the intense sudden impulse of 60 nT on 8 March 2012. And it could not capture the changes in VTEC driven by the storm time equatorward neutral wind especially during 18:00–24:00 UT. Consequently, the RMSEs were higher during this time window, and the highest RMSE value was obtained during the most intense storm in March 2012.
format	article
author	Paul Obiakara Amaechi Ibifubara Humphrey David Adeyinka Adewoyin
author_facet	Paul Obiakara Amaechi Ibifubara Humphrey David Adeyinka Adewoyin
author_sort	Paul Obiakara Amaechi
title	Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms
title_short	Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms
title_full	Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms
title_fullStr	Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms
title_sort	assessment of the predictive capabilities of nigtec model over nigeria during geomagnetic storms
publisher	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/294c8bf74a4e4eb4aa6839f9b429e2d4
work_keys_str_mv	AT paulobiakaraamaechi assessmentofthepredictivecapabilitiesofnigtecmodelovernigeriaduringgeomagneticstorms AT ibifubarahumphrey assessmentofthepredictivecapabilitiesofnigtecmodelovernigeriaduringgeomagneticstorms AT davidadeyinkaadewoyin assessmentofthepredictivecapabilitiesofnigtecmodelovernigeriaduringgeomagneticstorms
_version_	1718425028496719872

Assessment of the predictive capabilities of NIGTEC model over Nigeria during geomagnetic storms

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