Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System

Climate and land use changes have substantially affected hydrologic cycles and increased the risk of drought. Reservoirs are one of the important means to provide resilience against hydrologic variability and achieve sustainable water management. Therefore, adaptive reservoir operating rules are nee...

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Autores principales:	Zejun Li, Bensheng Huang, Zhifeng Yang, Jing Qiu, Bikui Zhao, Yanpeng Cai
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	climate and land use changes SWAT model hedging rules aggregation-decomposition drought conditions Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2aca17d915214b859e23d6ac41abdab7
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:2aca17d915214b859e23d6ac41abdab7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2aca17d915214b859e23d6ac41abdab72021-11-11T19:57:06ZMitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System10.3390/w132130952073-4441https://doaj.org/article/2aca17d915214b859e23d6ac41abdab72021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3095https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441Climate and land use changes have substantially affected hydrologic cycles and increased the risk of drought. Reservoirs are one of the important means to provide resilience against hydrologic variability and achieve sustainable water management. Therefore, adaptive reservoir operating rules are needed to mitigate their adverse effects. In this study, the Hanjiang River Basin in southeast China was selected as the study area. Future climate and land use projections were produced by the Delta method and CA-Markov model, respectively. Future climate forcings and land use patterns were then incorporated into a distributed hydrologic model to evaluate river flow regime shifts. Results revealed that climate and land use changes may lead to severe drought conditions in the future. Lower flows are shown to be more sensitive to environmental changes and a decline of monthly flows could reach up to nearly 30% in the dry season. To address the threat of increasing drought uncertainties in the water supply system, the aggregation-decomposition method incorporated with hedging rules was applied to guide the multi-reservoir operation. Parameters of optimal hedging rules were obtained by a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The performance of hedging rules was evaluated by comparison to standard operating policies and conventional operating rules with respect to reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, and sustainability indices. Results showed that the multi-reservoir system guided by hedging rules can be more adaptive to the environmental changes.Zejun LiBensheng HuangZhifeng YangJing QiuBikui ZhaoYanpeng CaiMDPI AGarticleclimate and land use changesSWAT modelhedging rulesaggregation-decompositiondrought conditionsHydraulic engineeringTC1-978Water supply for domestic and industrial purposesTD201-500ENWater, Vol 13, Iss 3095, p 3095 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate and land use changes SWAT model hedging rules aggregation-decomposition drought conditions Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500
spellingShingle	climate and land use changes SWAT model hedging rules aggregation-decomposition drought conditions Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Zejun Li Bensheng Huang Zhifeng Yang Jing Qiu Bikui Zhao Yanpeng Cai Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System
description	Climate and land use changes have substantially affected hydrologic cycles and increased the risk of drought. Reservoirs are one of the important means to provide resilience against hydrologic variability and achieve sustainable water management. Therefore, adaptive reservoir operating rules are needed to mitigate their adverse effects. In this study, the Hanjiang River Basin in southeast China was selected as the study area. Future climate and land use projections were produced by the Delta method and CA-Markov model, respectively. Future climate forcings and land use patterns were then incorporated into a distributed hydrologic model to evaluate river flow regime shifts. Results revealed that climate and land use changes may lead to severe drought conditions in the future. Lower flows are shown to be more sensitive to environmental changes and a decline of monthly flows could reach up to nearly 30% in the dry season. To address the threat of increasing drought uncertainties in the water supply system, the aggregation-decomposition method incorporated with hedging rules was applied to guide the multi-reservoir operation. Parameters of optimal hedging rules were obtained by a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The performance of hedging rules was evaluated by comparison to standard operating policies and conventional operating rules with respect to reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, and sustainability indices. Results showed that the multi-reservoir system guided by hedging rules can be more adaptive to the environmental changes.
format	article
author	Zejun Li Bensheng Huang Zhifeng Yang Jing Qiu Bikui Zhao Yanpeng Cai
author_facet	Zejun Li Bensheng Huang Zhifeng Yang Jing Qiu Bikui Zhao Yanpeng Cai
author_sort	Zejun Li
title	Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System
title_short	Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System
title_full	Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System
title_fullStr	Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System
title_full_unstemmed	Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System
title_sort	mitigating drought conditions under climate and land use changes by applying hedging rules for the multi-reservoir system
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2aca17d915214b859e23d6ac41abdab7
work_keys_str_mv	AT zejunli mitigatingdroughtconditionsunderclimateandlandusechangesbyapplyinghedgingrulesforthemultireservoirsystem AT benshenghuang mitigatingdroughtconditionsunderclimateandlandusechangesbyapplyinghedgingrulesforthemultireservoirsystem AT zhifengyang mitigatingdroughtconditionsunderclimateandlandusechangesbyapplyinghedgingrulesforthemultireservoirsystem AT jingqiu mitigatingdroughtconditionsunderclimateandlandusechangesbyapplyinghedgingrulesforthemultireservoirsystem AT bikuizhao mitigatingdroughtconditionsunderclimateandlandusechangesbyapplyinghedgingrulesforthemultireservoirsystem AT yanpengcai mitigatingdroughtconditionsunderclimateandlandusechangesbyapplyinghedgingrulesforthemultireservoirsystem
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Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System

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