Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

Abstract Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geos...

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Autores principales:	Qianqian Zhou, Guoyong Leng, Leyang Feng
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2b6f78991f5845129e3a2648451d1267
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2b6f78991f5845129e3a2648451d12672021-12-02T11:40:52ZPredictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability10.1038/s41598-017-05773-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2b6f78991f5845129e3a2648451d12672017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05773-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland and urban area to explore the relations with flood damage. A considerable increase in flood damage in CONUS is recorded for the study period which is well correlated with hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model can explain a larger portion of flood damage variations than precipitation in 84% of the states. Cropland is identified as an important factor contributing to increased flood damage in central US while urbanland exhibits positive and negative relations with total flood damage and damage per unit wealth in 20 and 16 states, respectively. Overall, flood damage in 34 out of 48 investigated states can be predicted at the 90% confidence level. In extreme cases, ~76% of flood damage variations can be explained in some states, highlighting the potential of future flood damage prediction based on climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.Qianqian ZhouGuoyong LengLeyang FengNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Qianqian Zhou Guoyong Leng Leyang Feng Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
description	Abstract Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland and urban area to explore the relations with flood damage. A considerable increase in flood damage in CONUS is recorded for the study period which is well correlated with hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model can explain a larger portion of flood damage variations than precipitation in 84% of the states. Cropland is identified as an important factor contributing to increased flood damage in central US while urbanland exhibits positive and negative relations with total flood damage and damage per unit wealth in 20 and 16 states, respectively. Overall, flood damage in 34 out of 48 investigated states can be predicted at the 90% confidence level. In extreme cases, ~76% of flood damage variations can be explained in some states, highlighting the potential of future flood damage prediction based on climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.
format	article
author	Qianqian Zhou Guoyong Leng Leyang Feng
author_facet	Qianqian Zhou Guoyong Leng Leyang Feng
author_sort	Qianqian Zhou
title	Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
title_short	Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
title_full	Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
title_fullStr	Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
title_full_unstemmed	Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
title_sort	predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous united states: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/2b6f78991f5845129e3a2648451d1267
work_keys_str_mv	AT qianqianzhou predictabilityofstatelevelflooddamageintheconterminousunitedstatestheroleofhazardexposureandvulnerability AT guoyongleng predictabilityofstatelevelflooddamageintheconterminousunitedstatestheroleofhazardexposureandvulnerability AT leyangfeng predictabilityofstatelevelflooddamageintheconterminousunitedstatestheroleofhazardexposureandvulnerability
_version_	1718395509148745728

Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

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