The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the ris...

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Autores principales:	José Lourenço, Mario Recker
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2b7630a80cd7464dab5ffd3adefa8e29
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2b7630a80cd7464dab5ffd3adefa8e292021-11-25T06:32:10ZThe 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0003083https://doaj.org/article/2b7630a80cd7464dab5ffd3adefa8e292014-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/25144749/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.José LourençoMario ReckerPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 8, p e3083 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 José Lourenço Mario Recker The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.
description	Dengue, a vector-borne viral disease of increasing global importance, is classically associated with tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Urbanisation, globalisation and climate trends, however, are facilitating the geographic spread of its mosquito vectors, thereby increasing the risk of the virus establishing itself in previously unaffected areas and causing large-scale epidemics. On 3 October 2012, two autochthonous dengue infections were reported within the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. During the following seven months, this first 'European' dengue outbreak caused more than 2000 local cases and 81 exported cases to mainland Europe. Here, using an ento-epidemiological mathematical framework, we estimate that the introduction of dengue to Madeira occurred around a month before the first official cases, during the period of maximum influx of airline travel, and that the naturally declining temperatures of autumn were the determining factor for the outbreak's demise in early December 2012. Using key estimates, together with local climate data, we further propose that there is little support for dengue endemicity on this island, but a high potential for future epidemic outbreaks when seeded between May and August-a period when detection of imported cases is crucial for Madeira's public health planning.
format	article
author	José Lourenço Mario Recker
author_facet	José Lourenço Mario Recker
author_sort	José Lourenço
title	The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.
title_short	The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.
title_full	The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.
title_fullStr	The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.
title_full_unstemmed	The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.
title_sort	2012 madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/2b7630a80cd7464dab5ffd3adefa8e29
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The 2012 Madeira dengue outbreak: epidemiological determinants and future epidemic potential.

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