Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change

Abstract Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in...

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Autores principales:	Bing Pu, Paul Ginoux
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2be571420e4447f08798c12f31aba856
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2be571420e4447f08798c12f31aba8562021-12-02T11:52:26ZProjection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change10.1038/s41598-017-05431-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2be571420e4447f08798c12f31aba8562017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05431-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modeling. This study found that changes of dust activity in the U.S. in the recent decade are largely associated with the variations of precipitation, soil bareness, and surface winds speed. Using multi-model output under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, we project that climate change will increase dust activity in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the twenty-first century – largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness, and increased surface wind speed. Over the northern Great Plains, less dusty days are expected in spring due to increased precipitation and reduced bareness. Given the large negative economic and societal consequences of severe dust storms, this study complements the multi-model projection on future dust variations and may help improve risk management and resource planning.Bing PuPaul GinouxNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Bing Pu Paul Ginoux Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change
description	Abstract Climate models project rising drought risks over the southwestern and central U.S. in the twenty-first century due to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the United States. However, whether dust activity in U.S. will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modeling. This study found that changes of dust activity in the U.S. in the recent decade are largely associated with the variations of precipitation, soil bareness, and surface winds speed. Using multi-model output under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, we project that climate change will increase dust activity in the southern Great Plains from spring to fall in the late half of the twenty-first century – largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness, and increased surface wind speed. Over the northern Great Plains, less dusty days are expected in spring due to increased precipitation and reduced bareness. Given the large negative economic and societal consequences of severe dust storms, this study complements the multi-model projection on future dust variations and may help improve risk management and resource planning.
format	article
author	Bing Pu Paul Ginoux
author_facet	Bing Pu Paul Ginoux
author_sort	Bing Pu
title	Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change
title_short	Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change
title_full	Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change
title_fullStr	Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change
title_full_unstemmed	Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change
title_sort	projection of american dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/2be571420e4447f08798c12f31aba856
work_keys_str_mv	AT bingpu projectionofamericandustinessinthelate21stcenturyduetoclimatechange AT paulginoux projectionofamericandustinessinthelate21stcenturyduetoclimatechange
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Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change

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