Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

Abstract Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation t...

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Autores principales:	Gina E. C. Charnley, Ilan Kelman, Nathan Green, Wes Hinsley, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe, Kris A. Murray
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	Public health Epidemiology Cholera Disease outbreaks Vibrio cholerae Droughts Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2c14098e8c9f469086190ea2c6cd689c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2c14098e8c9f469086190ea2c6cd689c2021-11-28T12:41:38ZExploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models10.1186/s12879-021-06856-41471-2334https://doaj.org/article/2c14098e8c9f469086190ea2c6cd689c2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06856-4https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2334Abstract Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth. Results The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous. Conclusions Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.Gina E. C. CharnleyIlan KelmanNathan GreenWes HinsleyKaty A. M. GaythorpeKris A. MurrayBMCarticlePublic healthEpidemiologyCholeraDisease outbreaksVibrio choleraeDroughtsInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENBMC Infectious Diseases, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Public health Epidemiology Cholera Disease outbreaks Vibrio cholerae Droughts Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	Public health Epidemiology Cholera Disease outbreaks Vibrio cholerae Droughts Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Gina E. C. Charnley Ilan Kelman Nathan Green Wes Hinsley Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Kris A. Murray Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
description	Abstract Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth. Results The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous. Conclusions Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.
format	article
author	Gina E. C. Charnley Ilan Kelman Nathan Green Wes Hinsley Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Kris A. Murray
author_facet	Gina E. C. Charnley Ilan Kelman Nathan Green Wes Hinsley Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Kris A. Murray
author_sort	Gina E. C. Charnley
title	Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
title_short	Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
title_full	Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
title_fullStr	Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
title_full_unstemmed	Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
title_sort	exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in africa using generalised linear models
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2c14098e8c9f469086190ea2c6cd689c
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Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

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