Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management

ABSTRACT Heterogeneity in host susceptibility is a key determinant of infectious disease dynamics but is rarely accounted for in assessment of disease control measures. Understanding how susceptibility is distributed in populations, and how control measures change this distribution, is integral to p...

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Autores principales:	Kate E. Langwig, Andrew R. Wargo, Darbi R. Jones, Jessie R. Viss, Barbara J. Rutan, Nicholas A. Egan, Pedro Sá-Guimarães, Min Sun Kim, Gael Kurath, M. Gabriela M. Gomes, Marc Lipsitch
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	American Society for Microbiology 2017
Materias:	all-or-nothing vaccines heterogeneity infectious disease dynamics mode of vaccine action partially protective vaccine Microbiology QR1-502
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2c8075b2870c43a690cf63b855f6c30b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2c8075b2870c43a690cf63b855f6c30b2021-11-15T15:51:55ZVaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management10.1128/mBio.00796-172150-7511https://doaj.org/article/2c8075b2870c43a690cf63b855f6c30b2017-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mBio.00796-17https://doaj.org/toc/2150-7511ABSTRACT Heterogeneity in host susceptibility is a key determinant of infectious disease dynamics but is rarely accounted for in assessment of disease control measures. Understanding how susceptibility is distributed in populations, and how control measures change this distribution, is integral to predicting the course of epidemics with and without interventions. Using multiple experimental and modeling approaches, we show that rainbow trout have relatively homogeneous susceptibility to infection with infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus and that vaccination increases heterogeneity in susceptibility in a nearly all-or-nothing fashion. In a simple transmission model with an R0 of 2, the highly heterogeneous vaccine protection would cause a 35 percentage-point reduction in outbreak size over an intervention inducing homogenous protection at the same mean level. More broadly, these findings provide validation of methodology that can help to reduce biases in predictions of vaccine impact in natural settings and provide insight into how vaccination shapes population susceptibility. IMPORTANCE Differences among individuals influence transmission and spread of infectious diseases as well as the effectiveness of control measures. Control measures, such as vaccines, may provide leaky protection, protecting all hosts to an identical degree, or all-or-nothing protection, protecting some hosts completely while leaving others completely unprotected. This distinction can have a dramatic influence on disease dynamics, yet this distribution of protection is frequently unaccounted for in epidemiological models and estimates of vaccine efficacy. Here, we apply new methodology to experimentally examine host heterogeneity in susceptibility and mode of vaccine action as distinct components influencing disease outcome. Through multiple experiments and new modeling approaches, we show that the distribution of vaccine effects can be robustly estimated. These results offer new experimental and inferential methodology that can improve predictions of vaccine effectiveness and have broad applicability to human, wildlife, and ecosystem health.Kate E. LangwigAndrew R. WargoDarbi R. JonesJessie R. VissBarbara J. RutanNicholas A. EganPedro Sá-GuimarãesMin Sun KimGael KurathM. Gabriela M. GomesMarc LipsitchAmerican Society for Microbiologyarticleall-or-nothing vaccinesheterogeneityinfectious disease dynamicsmode of vaccine actionpartially protective vaccineMicrobiologyQR1-502ENmBio, Vol 8, Iss 6 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	all-or-nothing vaccines heterogeneity infectious disease dynamics mode of vaccine action partially protective vaccine Microbiology QR1-502
spellingShingle	all-or-nothing vaccines heterogeneity infectious disease dynamics mode of vaccine action partially protective vaccine Microbiology QR1-502 Kate E. Langwig Andrew R. Wargo Darbi R. Jones Jessie R. Viss Barbara J. Rutan Nicholas A. Egan Pedro Sá-Guimarães Min Sun Kim Gael Kurath M. Gabriela M. Gomes Marc Lipsitch Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management
description	ABSTRACT Heterogeneity in host susceptibility is a key determinant of infectious disease dynamics but is rarely accounted for in assessment of disease control measures. Understanding how susceptibility is distributed in populations, and how control measures change this distribution, is integral to predicting the course of epidemics with and without interventions. Using multiple experimental and modeling approaches, we show that rainbow trout have relatively homogeneous susceptibility to infection with infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus and that vaccination increases heterogeneity in susceptibility in a nearly all-or-nothing fashion. In a simple transmission model with an R0 of 2, the highly heterogeneous vaccine protection would cause a 35 percentage-point reduction in outbreak size over an intervention inducing homogenous protection at the same mean level. More broadly, these findings provide validation of methodology that can help to reduce biases in predictions of vaccine impact in natural settings and provide insight into how vaccination shapes population susceptibility. IMPORTANCE Differences among individuals influence transmission and spread of infectious diseases as well as the effectiveness of control measures. Control measures, such as vaccines, may provide leaky protection, protecting all hosts to an identical degree, or all-or-nothing protection, protecting some hosts completely while leaving others completely unprotected. This distinction can have a dramatic influence on disease dynamics, yet this distribution of protection is frequently unaccounted for in epidemiological models and estimates of vaccine efficacy. Here, we apply new methodology to experimentally examine host heterogeneity in susceptibility and mode of vaccine action as distinct components influencing disease outcome. Through multiple experiments and new modeling approaches, we show that the distribution of vaccine effects can be robustly estimated. These results offer new experimental and inferential methodology that can improve predictions of vaccine effectiveness and have broad applicability to human, wildlife, and ecosystem health.
format	article
author	Kate E. Langwig Andrew R. Wargo Darbi R. Jones Jessie R. Viss Barbara J. Rutan Nicholas A. Egan Pedro Sá-Guimarães Min Sun Kim Gael Kurath M. Gabriela M. Gomes Marc Lipsitch
author_facet	Kate E. Langwig Andrew R. Wargo Darbi R. Jones Jessie R. Viss Barbara J. Rutan Nicholas A. Egan Pedro Sá-Guimarães Min Sun Kim Gael Kurath M. Gabriela M. Gomes Marc Lipsitch
author_sort	Kate E. Langwig
title	Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management
title_short	Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management
title_full	Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management
title_fullStr	Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management
title_full_unstemmed	Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management
title_sort	vaccine effects on heterogeneity in susceptibility and implications for population health management
publisher	American Society for Microbiology
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/2c8075b2870c43a690cf63b855f6c30b
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Vaccine Effects on Heterogeneity in Susceptibility and Implications for Population Health Management

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