Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study

Summary: Background: Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from the outbreak peak in January 2020, despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. We evaluated the impact of NYC's vaccination campaign on saving lives as wel...

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Autores principales:	Affan Shoukat, Thomas N. Vilches, Seyed M. Moghadas, Pratha Sah, Eric C. Schneider, Jaimie Shaff, Alexandra Ternier, Dave A. Chokshi, Alison P. Galvani
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2022
Materias:	SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus mathematical modelling Delta variant Gamma variant Iota variant Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2c8934c55e114b2c8f37747d0e3ce77e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2c8934c55e114b2c8f37747d0e3ce77e2021-12-02T05:04:37ZLives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study2667-193X10.1016/j.lana.2021.100085https://doaj.org/article/2c8934c55e114b2c8f37747d0e3ce77e2022-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667193X21000818https://doaj.org/toc/2667-193XSummary: Background: Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from the outbreak peak in January 2020, despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. We evaluated the impact of NYC's vaccination campaign on saving lives as well as averting hospitalizations and cases. Methods: We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to include transmission dynamics of Alpha, Gamma, Delta and Iota variants as identified in NYC. The model was calibrated and fitted to reported incidence in NYC, accounting for the relative transmissibility of each variant and vaccination rollout data. We simulated COVID-19 outbreak in NYC under the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination and compared the resulting disease burden with the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths reported under the actual pace of vaccination. Findings: We found that without vaccination, there would have been a spring-wave of COVID-19 in NYC due to the spread of Alpha and Delta variants. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in NYC prevented such a wave, and averted 290,467 (95% CrI: 232,551 — 342,664) cases, 48,076 (95% CrI: 42,264 — 53,301) hospitalizations, and 8,508 (95% CrI: 7,374 — 9,543) deaths from December 14, 2020 to July 15, 2021. Interpretation: Our study demonstrates that the vaccination program in NYC was instrumental to substantially reducing the COVID-19 burden and suppressing a surge of cases attributable to more transmissible variants. As the Delta variant sweeps predominantly among unvaccinated individuals, our findings underscore the urgent need to accelerate vaccine uptake and close the vaccination coverage gaps. Funding: This study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund.Affan ShoukatThomas N. VilchesSeyed M. MoghadasPratha SahEric C. SchneiderJaimie ShaffAlexandra TernierDave A. ChokshiAlison P. GalvaniElsevierarticleSARS-CoV-2Coronavirusmathematical modellingDelta variantGamma variantIota variantPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENThe Lancet Regional Health. Americas, Vol 5, Iss , Pp 100085- (2022)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus mathematical modelling Delta variant Gamma variant Iota variant Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus mathematical modelling Delta variant Gamma variant Iota variant Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Affan Shoukat Thomas N. Vilches Seyed M. Moghadas Pratha Sah Eric C. Schneider Jaimie Shaff Alexandra Ternier Dave A. Chokshi Alison P. Galvani Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study
description	Summary: Background: Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from the outbreak peak in January 2020, despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. We evaluated the impact of NYC's vaccination campaign on saving lives as well as averting hospitalizations and cases. Methods: We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to include transmission dynamics of Alpha, Gamma, Delta and Iota variants as identified in NYC. The model was calibrated and fitted to reported incidence in NYC, accounting for the relative transmissibility of each variant and vaccination rollout data. We simulated COVID-19 outbreak in NYC under the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination and compared the resulting disease burden with the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths reported under the actual pace of vaccination. Findings: We found that without vaccination, there would have been a spring-wave of COVID-19 in NYC due to the spread of Alpha and Delta variants. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in NYC prevented such a wave, and averted 290,467 (95% CrI: 232,551 — 342,664) cases, 48,076 (95% CrI: 42,264 — 53,301) hospitalizations, and 8,508 (95% CrI: 7,374 — 9,543) deaths from December 14, 2020 to July 15, 2021. Interpretation: Our study demonstrates that the vaccination program in NYC was instrumental to substantially reducing the COVID-19 burden and suppressing a surge of cases attributable to more transmissible variants. As the Delta variant sweeps predominantly among unvaccinated individuals, our findings underscore the urgent need to accelerate vaccine uptake and close the vaccination coverage gaps. Funding: This study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund.
format	article
author	Affan Shoukat Thomas N. Vilches Seyed M. Moghadas Pratha Sah Eric C. Schneider Jaimie Shaff Alexandra Ternier Dave A. Chokshi Alison P. Galvani
author_facet	Affan Shoukat Thomas N. Vilches Seyed M. Moghadas Pratha Sah Eric C. Schneider Jaimie Shaff Alexandra Ternier Dave A. Chokshi Alison P. Galvani
author_sort	Affan Shoukat
title	Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study
title_short	Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study
title_full	Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study
title_fullStr	Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study
title_full_unstemmed	Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study
title_sort	lives saved and hospitalizations averted by covid-19 vaccination in new york city: a modeling study
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2022
url	https://doaj.org/article/2c8934c55e114b2c8f37747d0e3ce77e
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Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study

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