Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas

This research aims to analyze the transport sector through a model that integrates the Prospective Scenarios with Systems Dynamics aiming predict future alternatives for the load for road transport in the region of Corede Production of Rio Grande do Sul/Brazil. In the first research tool was adopted...

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Autores principales:	Henrique Dias Blois, Eduardo Belisario Monteiro de Castro Finamore
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	PT
Publicado:	Universidade Regional do Noroeste do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul 2018
Materias:	prospective scenarios system dynamics load road transport corede production Economic growth, development, planning HD72-88
Acceso en línea:	https://doi.org/10.21527/2237-6453.2018.45.170-190 https://doaj.org/article/2cf81b9f7e21413ba54d33ff0ae5ddca
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2cf81b9f7e21413ba54d33ff0ae5ddca2021-11-11T15:16:09ZPlanejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas1678-48552237-6453https://doi.org/10.21527/2237-6453.2018.45.170-190https://doaj.org/article/2cf81b9f7e21413ba54d33ff0ae5ddca2018-01-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=75257033012https://doaj.org/toc/1678-4855https://doaj.org/toc/2237-6453This research aims to analyze the transport sector through a model that integrates the Prospective Scenarios with Systems Dynamics aiming predict future alternatives for the load for road transport in the region of Corede Production of Rio Grande do Sul/Brazil. In the first research tool was adopted the method described by Marcial and Grumbach (2012), in which experts contribute to the construction of scenarios. After the generation of scenarios, it was done an integration with the hard modeling of System Dynamics that seeks to provide alternatives that enable analysis, description and simulation of trends for the next five years. The results show a set of scenarios and actions by pointing out opportunities and threats in the external environment, strong and weak points of the internal environment, basing strategic and operational decisions in the present. It also executes predictions for the sector through simulation, and discusses the possibility of implementing a regional development agency, as a facilitator of the proposed model. The integration model proposed in this study proved useful because it reduced the number of future uncertainties, built by the reduction of events most likely to occur. This feature is important because it focuses on the investor in those events that can actually interfere with the evolution of the analyzed system.Henrique Dias BloisEduardo Belisario Monteiro de Castro FinamoreUniversidade Regional do Noroeste do Estado do Rio Grande do Sularticleprospective scenariossystem dynamicsload road transportcorede productionEconomic growth, development, planningHD72-88PTDesenvolvimento em Questão, Vol 16, Iss 45, Pp 170-190 (2018)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	PT
topic	prospective scenarios system dynamics load road transport corede production Economic growth, development, planning HD72-88
spellingShingle	prospective scenarios system dynamics load road transport corede production Economic growth, development, planning HD72-88 Henrique Dias Blois Eduardo Belisario Monteiro de Castro Finamore Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas
description	This research aims to analyze the transport sector through a model that integrates the Prospective Scenarios with Systems Dynamics aiming predict future alternatives for the load for road transport in the region of Corede Production of Rio Grande do Sul/Brazil. In the first research tool was adopted the method described by Marcial and Grumbach (2012), in which experts contribute to the construction of scenarios. After the generation of scenarios, it was done an integration with the hard modeling of System Dynamics that seeks to provide alternatives that enable analysis, description and simulation of trends for the next five years. The results show a set of scenarios and actions by pointing out opportunities and threats in the external environment, strong and weak points of the internal environment, basing strategic and operational decisions in the present. It also executes predictions for the sector through simulation, and discusses the possibility of implementing a regional development agency, as a facilitator of the proposed model. The integration model proposed in this study proved useful because it reduced the number of future uncertainties, built by the reduction of events most likely to occur. This feature is important because it focuses on the investor in those events that can actually interfere with the evolution of the analyzed system.
format	article
author	Henrique Dias Blois Eduardo Belisario Monteiro de Castro Finamore
author_facet	Henrique Dias Blois Eduardo Belisario Monteiro de Castro Finamore
author_sort	Henrique Dias Blois
title	Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas
title_short	Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas
title_full	Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas
title_fullStr	Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas
title_full_unstemmed	Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas
title_sort	planejamento setorial e regional: um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas
publisher	Universidade Regional do Noroeste do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul
publishDate	2018
url	https://doi.org/10.21527/2237-6453.2018.45.170-190 https://doaj.org/article/2cf81b9f7e21413ba54d33ff0ae5ddca
work_keys_str_mv	AT henriquediasblois planejamentosetorialeregionalummodelodeintegracaoentreferramentasdeprevisaoaplicadoaotransporterodoviariodecargas AT eduardobelisariomonteirodecastrofinamore planejamentosetorialeregionalummodelodeintegracaoentreferramentasdeprevisaoaplicadoaotransporterodoviariodecargas
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Planejamento Setorial e Regional: Um modelo de integração entre ferramentas de previsão aplicado ao transporte rodoviário de cargas

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