AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ

Research area is Afyonkarahisar Province which takes place inland, 800 km from coast. Continental climate characters are seen in area. Afyonkarahisar which takes place in central west part of Aegean region in southwest of Turkey. It is also in crossroads because Afyonkarahisar is in the boundaries o...

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Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	DE EN FR TR
Publicado:	Fırat University 2019
Materias:	box jenkins technique, climatic change, temperature, precipitation, afyonkarahisar. Social Sciences H Social sciences (General) H1-99
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2dae92ae32cc4aa99935216373f4cea3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2dae92ae32cc4aa99935216373f4cea32021-11-24T09:21:07ZAFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ2148-416310.9761/jasss_312https://doaj.org/article/2dae92ae32cc4aa99935216373f4cea32019-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://jasstudies.com/index.jsp?mod=tammetin&makaleadi=1108973433_bahad%C4%B1rmuhammet_T.pdf&key=26298https://doaj.org/toc/2148-4163Research area is Afyonkarahisar Province which takes place inland, 800 km from coast. Continental climate characters are seen in area. Afyonkarahisar which takes place in central west part of Aegean region in southwest of Turkey. It is also in crossroads because Afyonkarahisar is in the boundaries of Mediterranean Central Anatolia and Aegean regions. According to climate type models, the climate of research area is sub-humid in respect of de Martonne, it is semi-arid in respect of Erinç, it is generally arid and low degree humid and according to Aydeniz climate classification, it is arid. Box-Jenkins technique (ARIMA) which is a method of analyses and prediction in time series, has been used in the study. According to this method, trend analyses have been made in respect of long annual mean of temperature and precipitation in Afyonkarahisar. According to ARIMA model, the predictions have been produced until the year 2015 and according to Quadratic ve Linear Trend models, predictions have been produced until the year 2025. According to ARIMA model, an increase in precipitation as 14 mm. has been predicted until the year 2015. According to Quadratic Trend model, a decrease in precipitation as 20 mm. has been predicted until the year 2025. And also according to Linear Trend model, an increase in precipitation as 2-3 mm. has been predicted until the year 2025. On the other hand, According to ARIMA model, an increase in temperature as 0,3-0,4 °C has been predicted until the year 2025. According to Quadratic Trend model, an increase in temperature as 1,2 °C. has been predicted until the year 2025 And also according to Linear Trend model, an increase in temperature as 0,5 °C has been predicted until the year 2025. This decrease in temperature correspond to the increases in temperature as 1,4-5,8 °C which are predicted by United Nations between the year 1990-2100.-Fırat Universityarticleboxjenkins technique, climatic change, temperature, precipitation, afyonkarahisar.Social SciencesHSocial sciences (General)H1-99DEENFRTRJournal of Academic Social Science Studies , Vol 5, Iss 15, Pp 195-212 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	DE EN FR TR
topic	box jenkins technique, climatic change, temperature, precipitation, afyonkarahisar. Social Sciences H Social sciences (General) H1-99
spellingShingle	box jenkins technique, climatic change, temperature, precipitation, afyonkarahisar. Social Sciences H Social sciences (General) H1-99 - AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ
description	Research area is Afyonkarahisar Province which takes place inland, 800 km from coast. Continental climate characters are seen in area. Afyonkarahisar which takes place in central west part of Aegean region in southwest of Turkey. It is also in crossroads because Afyonkarahisar is in the boundaries of Mediterranean Central Anatolia and Aegean regions. According to climate type models, the climate of research area is sub-humid in respect of de Martonne, it is semi-arid in respect of Erinç, it is generally arid and low degree humid and according to Aydeniz climate classification, it is arid. Box-Jenkins technique (ARIMA) which is a method of analyses and prediction in time series, has been used in the study. According to this method, trend analyses have been made in respect of long annual mean of temperature and precipitation in Afyonkarahisar. According to ARIMA model, the predictions have been produced until the year 2015 and according to Quadratic ve Linear Trend models, predictions have been produced until the year 2025. According to ARIMA model, an increase in precipitation as 14 mm. has been predicted until the year 2015. According to Quadratic Trend model, a decrease in precipitation as 20 mm. has been predicted until the year 2025. And also according to Linear Trend model, an increase in precipitation as 2-3 mm. has been predicted until the year 2025. On the other hand, According to ARIMA model, an increase in temperature as 0,3-0,4 °C has been predicted until the year 2025. According to Quadratic Trend model, an increase in temperature as 1,2 °C. has been predicted until the year 2025 And also according to Linear Trend model, an increase in temperature as 0,5 °C has been predicted until the year 2025. This decrease in temperature correspond to the increases in temperature as 1,4-5,8 °C which are predicted by United Nations between the year 1990-2100.
format	article
author	-
author_facet	-
author_sort	-
title	AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ
title_short	AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ
title_full	AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ
title_fullStr	AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ
title_full_unstemmed	AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ
title_sort	afyonkarahi̇sar’da (türki̇ye) yağiş ve sicakliğin box – jenki̇ns tekni̇ği̇ i̇le anali̇zi̇
publisher	Fırat University
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/2dae92ae32cc4aa99935216373f4cea3
work_keys_str_mv	AT afyonkarahisardaturkiyeyagisvesicakliginboxjenkinsteknigiileanalizi
_version_	1718415157129904128

AFYONKARAHİSAR’DA (TÜRKİYE) YAĞIŞ VE SICAKLIĞIN BOX – JENKİNS TEKNİĞİ İLE ANALİZİ

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