Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift

Abstract Robust time-series of direct observations of jellyfish abundance are not available for many ecosystems, leaving it difficult to determine changes in jellyfish abundance, the possible causes (e.g. climate change) or the consequences (e.g. trophic cascades). We sought an indirect ecological r...

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Autores principales:	Emily G. Mitchell, Margaret I. Wallace, V. Anne Smith, Amanda A. Wiesenthal, Andrew S. Brierley
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2dd9b7837b894878a11304cbe84893b1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2dd9b7837b894878a11304cbe84893b12021-12-02T14:26:47ZBayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift10.1038/s41598-021-82825-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2dd9b7837b894878a11304cbe84893b12021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82825-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Robust time-series of direct observations of jellyfish abundance are not available for many ecosystems, leaving it difficult to determine changes in jellyfish abundance, the possible causes (e.g. climate change) or the consequences (e.g. trophic cascades). We sought an indirect ecological route to reconstruct jellyfish abundance in the Irish Sea: since zooplankton are jellyfish prey, historic variability in zooplankton communities may provide proxies for jellyfish abundance. We determined the Bayesian ecological network of jellyfish–zooplankton dependencies using jellyfish- and zooplankton-abundance data obtained using nets during a 2-week cruise to the Irish Sea in 2008. This network revealed that Aurelia aurita abundance was dependent on zooplankton groups Warm Temperate and Temperate Oceanic as defined by previous zooplankton ecology work. We then determined historic zooplankton networks across the Irish Sea from abundance data from Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys conducted between 1970 and 2000. Transposing the 2008 spatial dependencies onto the historic networks revealed that Aurelia abundance was more strongly dependent over time on sea surface temperature than on the zooplankton community. The generalist predatory abilities of Aurelia may have insulated this jellyfish over the 1985 regime shift when zooplankton composition in the Irish Sea changed abruptly, and also help explain its globally widespread distribution.Emily G. MitchellMargaret I. WallaceV. Anne SmithAmanda A. WiesenthalAndrew S. BrierleyNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Emily G. Mitchell Margaret I. Wallace V. Anne Smith Amanda A. Wiesenthal Andrew S. Brierley Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift
description	Abstract Robust time-series of direct observations of jellyfish abundance are not available for many ecosystems, leaving it difficult to determine changes in jellyfish abundance, the possible causes (e.g. climate change) or the consequences (e.g. trophic cascades). We sought an indirect ecological route to reconstruct jellyfish abundance in the Irish Sea: since zooplankton are jellyfish prey, historic variability in zooplankton communities may provide proxies for jellyfish abundance. We determined the Bayesian ecological network of jellyfish–zooplankton dependencies using jellyfish- and zooplankton-abundance data obtained using nets during a 2-week cruise to the Irish Sea in 2008. This network revealed that Aurelia aurita abundance was dependent on zooplankton groups Warm Temperate and Temperate Oceanic as defined by previous zooplankton ecology work. We then determined historic zooplankton networks across the Irish Sea from abundance data from Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys conducted between 1970 and 2000. Transposing the 2008 spatial dependencies onto the historic networks revealed that Aurelia abundance was more strongly dependent over time on sea surface temperature than on the zooplankton community. The generalist predatory abilities of Aurelia may have insulated this jellyfish over the 1985 regime shift when zooplankton composition in the Irish Sea changed abruptly, and also help explain its globally widespread distribution.
format	article
author	Emily G. Mitchell Margaret I. Wallace V. Anne Smith Amanda A. Wiesenthal Andrew S. Brierley
author_facet	Emily G. Mitchell Margaret I. Wallace V. Anne Smith Amanda A. Wiesenthal Andrew S. Brierley
author_sort	Emily G. Mitchell
title	Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift
title_short	Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift
title_full	Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift
title_fullStr	Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift
title_full_unstemmed	Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift
title_sort	bayesian network analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish aurelia aurita to an irish sea regime shift
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2dd9b7837b894878a11304cbe84893b1
work_keys_str_mv	AT emilygmitchell bayesiannetworkanalysisrevealsresilienceofthejellyfishaureliaauritatoanirishsearegimeshift AT margaretiwallace bayesiannetworkanalysisrevealsresilienceofthejellyfishaureliaauritatoanirishsearegimeshift AT vannesmith bayesiannetworkanalysisrevealsresilienceofthejellyfishaureliaauritatoanirishsearegimeshift AT amandaawiesenthal bayesiannetworkanalysisrevealsresilienceofthejellyfishaureliaauritatoanirishsearegimeshift AT andrewsbrierley bayesiannetworkanalysisrevealsresilienceofthejellyfishaureliaauritatoanirishsearegimeshift
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Bayesian Network Analysis reveals resilience of the jellyfish Aurelia aurita to an Irish Sea regime shift

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