A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity

Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting models have been primarily studied and developed over the past twenty years. These models mainly rely on seismicity catalogs as their data source and provide forecasts in time, space, and magnitude in a quantifiable manner. In this study, we presented a techni...

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Autores principales:	Matteo Taroni, Aybige Akinci
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	smoothed seismicity methods global seismicity foreshocks and aftershocks earthquake forecasting model Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2de36fdcf8d642489b519777643a27f5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2de36fdcf8d642489b519777643a27f52021-11-25T16:40:15ZA New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity10.3390/app1122108992076-3417https://doaj.org/article/2de36fdcf8d642489b519777643a27f52021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/22/10899https://doaj.org/toc/2076-3417Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting models have been primarily studied and developed over the past twenty years. These models mainly rely on seismicity catalogs as their data source and provide forecasts in time, space, and magnitude in a quantifiable manner. In this study, we presented a technique to better determine future earthquakes in space based on spatially smoothed seismicity. The improvement’s main objective is to use foreshock and aftershock events together with their mainshocks. Time-independent earthquake forecast models are often developed using declustered catalogs, where smaller-magnitude events regarding their mainshocks are removed from the catalog. Declustered catalogs are required in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to hold the Poisson assumption that the events are independent in time and space. However, as highlighted and presented by many recent studies, removing such events from seismic catalogs may lead to underestimating seismicity rates and, consequently, the final seismic hazard in terms of ground shaking. Our study also demonstrated that considering the complete catalog may improve future earthquakes’ spatial forecast. To do so, we adopted two different smoothed seismicity methods: (1) the fixed smoothing method, which uses spatially uniform smoothing parameters, and (2) the adaptive smoothing method, which relates an individual smoothing distance for each earthquake. The smoothed seismicity models are constructed by using the global earthquake catalog with M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 events. We reported progress on comparing smoothed seismicity models developed by calculating and evaluating the joint log-likelihoods. Our resulting forecast shows a significant information gain concerning both fixed and adaptive smoothing model forecasts. Our findings indicate that complete catalogs are a notable feature for increasing the spatial variation skill of seismicity forecasts.Matteo TaroniAybige AkinciMDPI AGarticlesmoothed seismicity methodsglobal seismicityforeshocks and aftershocksearthquake forecasting modelTechnologyTEngineering (General). Civil engineering (General)TA1-2040Biology (General)QH301-705.5PhysicsQC1-999ChemistryQD1-999ENApplied Sciences, Vol 11, Iss 10899, p 10899 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	smoothed seismicity methods global seismicity foreshocks and aftershocks earthquake forecasting model Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999
spellingShingle	smoothed seismicity methods global seismicity foreshocks and aftershocks earthquake forecasting model Technology T Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 Matteo Taroni Aybige Akinci A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity
description	Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting models have been primarily studied and developed over the past twenty years. These models mainly rely on seismicity catalogs as their data source and provide forecasts in time, space, and magnitude in a quantifiable manner. In this study, we presented a technique to better determine future earthquakes in space based on spatially smoothed seismicity. The improvement’s main objective is to use foreshock and aftershock events together with their mainshocks. Time-independent earthquake forecast models are often developed using declustered catalogs, where smaller-magnitude events regarding their mainshocks are removed from the catalog. Declustered catalogs are required in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to hold the Poisson assumption that the events are independent in time and space. However, as highlighted and presented by many recent studies, removing such events from seismic catalogs may lead to underestimating seismicity rates and, consequently, the final seismic hazard in terms of ground shaking. Our study also demonstrated that considering the complete catalog may improve future earthquakes’ spatial forecast. To do so, we adopted two different smoothed seismicity methods: (1) the fixed smoothing method, which uses spatially uniform smoothing parameters, and (2) the adaptive smoothing method, which relates an individual smoothing distance for each earthquake. The smoothed seismicity models are constructed by using the global earthquake catalog with M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 events. We reported progress on comparing smoothed seismicity models developed by calculating and evaluating the joint log-likelihoods. Our resulting forecast shows a significant information gain concerning both fixed and adaptive smoothing model forecasts. Our findings indicate that complete catalogs are a notable feature for increasing the spatial variation skill of seismicity forecasts.
format	article
author	Matteo Taroni Aybige Akinci
author_facet	Matteo Taroni Aybige Akinci
author_sort	Matteo Taroni
title	A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity
title_short	A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity
title_full	A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity
title_fullStr	A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity
title_full_unstemmed	A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity
title_sort	new smoothed seismicity approach to include aftershocks and foreshocks in spatial earthquake forecasting: application to the global m<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 seismicity
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2de36fdcf8d642489b519777643a27f5
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A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global M<sub>w</sub> ≥ 5.5 Seismicity

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