Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing

Abstract The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interannual variability of Earth’s climate system, and strongly modulates global temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, tropical cyclones and other extreme events. However, forecasting ENSO is one of the most difficult pr...

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Autores principales:	Jialin Lin, Taotao Qian
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2019
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2e3643a1815e48c089daabdb37e62d33
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2e3643a1815e48c089daabdb37e62d332021-12-02T15:10:02ZSwitch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing10.1038/s41598-019-49678-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2e3643a1815e48c089daabdb37e62d332019-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49678-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interannual variability of Earth’s climate system, and strongly modulates global temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, tropical cyclones and other extreme events. However, forecasting ENSO is one of the most difficult problems in climate sciences affecting both interannual climate prediction and decadal prediction of near-term global climate change. The key question is what cause the switch between El Nino and La Nina. For the past 30 years, ENSO forecasts have been limited to short lead times after ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly has already developed, but unable to predict the switch between El Nino and La Nina. Here, we demonstrate that the switch between El Nino and La Nina is caused by a subsurface ocean wave propagating from western Pacific to central and eastern Pacific and then triggering development of SST anomaly. This is based on analysis of all ENSO events in the past 136 years using multiple long-term observational datasets. The wave’s slow phase speed and decoupling from atmosphere indicate that it is a forced wave. Further analysis of Earth’s angular momentum budget and NASA’s Apollo Landing Mirror Experiment suggests that the subsurface wave is likely driven by lunar tidal gravitational force.Jialin LinTaotao QianNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jialin Lin Taotao Qian Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing
description	Abstract The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interannual variability of Earth’s climate system, and strongly modulates global temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, tropical cyclones and other extreme events. However, forecasting ENSO is one of the most difficult problems in climate sciences affecting both interannual climate prediction and decadal prediction of near-term global climate change. The key question is what cause the switch between El Nino and La Nina. For the past 30 years, ENSO forecasts have been limited to short lead times after ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly has already developed, but unable to predict the switch between El Nino and La Nina. Here, we demonstrate that the switch between El Nino and La Nina is caused by a subsurface ocean wave propagating from western Pacific to central and eastern Pacific and then triggering development of SST anomaly. This is based on analysis of all ENSO events in the past 136 years using multiple long-term observational datasets. The wave’s slow phase speed and decoupling from atmosphere indicate that it is a forced wave. Further analysis of Earth’s angular momentum budget and NASA’s Apollo Landing Mirror Experiment suggests that the subsurface wave is likely driven by lunar tidal gravitational force.
format	article
author	Jialin Lin Taotao Qian
author_facet	Jialin Lin Taotao Qian
author_sort	Jialin Lin
title	Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing
title_short	Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing
title_full	Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing
title_fullStr	Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing
title_full_unstemmed	Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing
title_sort	switch between el nino and la nina is caused by subsurface ocean waves likely driven by lunar tidal forcing
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/2e3643a1815e48c089daabdb37e62d33
work_keys_str_mv	AT jialinlin switchbetweenelninoandlaninaiscausedbysubsurfaceoceanwaveslikelydrivenbylunartidalforcing AT taotaoqian switchbetweenelninoandlaninaiscausedbysubsurfaceoceanwaveslikelydrivenbylunartidalforcing
_version_	1718387742302273536

Switch Between El Nino and La Nina is Caused by Subsurface Ocean Waves Likely Driven by Lunar Tidal Forcing

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