Quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda

Ugandan rivers are being tapped as a resource for the generation of hydropower in addition to other uses. Studies on the reliability of these hydropower plants due to climate and land-use/land cover changes on the hydrology of these rivers are scanty. Therefore, this study aimed to model the impact...

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Autores principales:	Hilary Keneth Bahati, Abraham Ogenrwoth, Jotham Ivan Sempewo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	flow duration curves hydropower potential land-use change rcp swat-cup sufi-2 swat model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2e69b5e9959d4187ae166aa17498c40b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2e69b5e9959d4187ae166aa17498c40b2021-11-05T19:07:43ZQuantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.273https://doaj.org/article/2e69b5e9959d4187ae166aa17498c40b2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/6/2526https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Ugandan rivers are being tapped as a resource for the generation of hydropower in addition to other uses. Studies on the reliability of these hydropower plants due to climate and land-use/land cover changes on the hydrology of these rivers are scanty. Therefore, this study aimed to model the impact of the changing climate and land-use/cover on hydropower reliability to aid proper planning and management. The hydropower reliability of Muzizi River catchment was determined from its past (1998–2010) and midcentury (2041–2060) discharge at 30 and 95% exceedance probability under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The past and projected hydropower were compared to determine how future climate and land-use changes will impact the discharge and hydropower reliability of Muzizi River catchment. Six LULC scenarios (deforestation, 31–20%; grassland, 19–3%; cropland, 50–77%; water bodies, 0.02–0.01%; settlement, 0.23–0.37%, and Barren land 0.055–0.046% between 2014 and 2060) and three downscaled Regional Climate Model (REMO and RCA4 for precipitation and RACMO22T for temperature from a pool of four CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) Africa RCMs) were examined. A calibrated SWAT simulation model was applied for the midcentury (2041–2060) period, and a potential change in hydropower energy in reference to mean daily flow (designflow ≥ 30% exceedance probability), firm flow (flow ≥ 95% exceedance probability), and mean annual flow was evaluated under the condition of altered runoff under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for an average of REMO and RCA4 RCM. The future land use (2060) was projected using the MOLUSCE (Module for Land Use Change Evaluation) plugin in QGIS using CA-ANN. Three scenarios have been described in this study, including LULC change, climate change, and combined (climate and LULC change). The results suggest that there will be a significant increase in annual hydropower generation capacity (from 386.27 and 488.1 GWh to 867.82 and 862.53 GWh under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for the combined future effect of climate and land-use/cover changes. Energy utilities need to put in place mechanisms to effectively manage, operate, and maintain the hydropower plant amidst climate and land-use change impacts, to ensure reliability at all times. HIGHLIGHTS Innovative approaches for hydrological modeling in data-scarce scenarios.; The possibility to utilize bias-corrected reanalysis and historical discharge data to build a climate model in data-scarce scenarios.; Sheds light on the potential risks of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability in data scarcity areas.; Informs the need to implement prudent catchment management practices and develop policies.;Hilary Keneth BahatiAbraham OgenrwothJotham Ivan SempewoIWA Publishingarticleflow duration curveshydropower potentialland-use changercpswat-cup sufi-2swat modelEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 2526-2554 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	flow duration curves hydropower potential land-use change rcp swat-cup sufi-2 swat model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	flow duration curves hydropower potential land-use change rcp swat-cup sufi-2 swat model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Hilary Keneth Bahati Abraham Ogenrwoth Jotham Ivan Sempewo Quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda
description	Ugandan rivers are being tapped as a resource for the generation of hydropower in addition to other uses. Studies on the reliability of these hydropower plants due to climate and land-use/land cover changes on the hydrology of these rivers are scanty. Therefore, this study aimed to model the impact of the changing climate and land-use/cover on hydropower reliability to aid proper planning and management. The hydropower reliability of Muzizi River catchment was determined from its past (1998–2010) and midcentury (2041–2060) discharge at 30 and 95% exceedance probability under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The past and projected hydropower were compared to determine how future climate and land-use changes will impact the discharge and hydropower reliability of Muzizi River catchment. Six LULC scenarios (deforestation, 31–20%; grassland, 19–3%; cropland, 50–77%; water bodies, 0.02–0.01%; settlement, 0.23–0.37%, and Barren land 0.055–0.046% between 2014 and 2060) and three downscaled Regional Climate Model (REMO and RCA4 for precipitation and RACMO22T for temperature from a pool of four CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) Africa RCMs) were examined. A calibrated SWAT simulation model was applied for the midcentury (2041–2060) period, and a potential change in hydropower energy in reference to mean daily flow (designflow ≥ 30% exceedance probability), firm flow (flow ≥ 95% exceedance probability), and mean annual flow was evaluated under the condition of altered runoff under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for an average of REMO and RCA4 RCM. The future land use (2060) was projected using the MOLUSCE (Module for Land Use Change Evaluation) plugin in QGIS using CA-ANN. Three scenarios have been described in this study, including LULC change, climate change, and combined (climate and LULC change). The results suggest that there will be a significant increase in annual hydropower generation capacity (from 386.27 and 488.1 GWh to 867.82 and 862.53 GWh under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for the combined future effect of climate and land-use/cover changes. Energy utilities need to put in place mechanisms to effectively manage, operate, and maintain the hydropower plant amidst climate and land-use change impacts, to ensure reliability at all times. HIGHLIGHTS Innovative approaches for hydrological modeling in data-scarce scenarios.; The possibility to utilize bias-corrected reanalysis and historical discharge data to build a climate model in data-scarce scenarios.; Sheds light on the potential risks of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability in data scarcity areas.; Informs the need to implement prudent catchment management practices and develop policies.;
format	article
author	Hilary Keneth Bahati Abraham Ogenrwoth Jotham Ivan Sempewo
author_facet	Hilary Keneth Bahati Abraham Ogenrwoth Jotham Ivan Sempewo
author_sort	Hilary Keneth Bahati
title	Quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda
title_short	Quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda
title_full	Quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda
title_fullStr	Quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda
title_full_unstemmed	Quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda
title_sort	quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of muzizi hydropower plant, uganda
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2e69b5e9959d4187ae166aa17498c40b
work_keys_str_mv	AT hilarykenethbahati quantifyingthepotentialimpactsoflanduseandclimatechangeonhydropowerreliabilityofmuzizihydropowerplantuganda AT abrahamogenrwoth quantifyingthepotentialimpactsoflanduseandclimatechangeonhydropowerreliabilityofmuzizihydropowerplantuganda AT jothamivansempewo quantifyingthepotentialimpactsoflanduseandclimatechangeonhydropowerreliabilityofmuzizihydropowerplantuganda
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Quantifying the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on hydropower reliability of Muzizi hydropower plant, Uganda

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