Anticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations

Abstract Tuberculosis (TB) is the 10th leading cause of death worldwide, and since 2007 it has been the main cause of death from a single infectious agent, ranking above HIV/AIDS. The current COVID-19 is a pandemic which caused many deaths around the world. The danger is not only a coinfection as ob...

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Autores principales:	Jan Christian Schlüter, Leif Sörensen, Andreas Bossert, Moritz Kersting, Wieland Staab, Benjamin Wacker
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2e6fbd26d6aa48aea3b9b07bb386abca
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2e6fbd26d6aa48aea3b9b07bb386abca2021-12-02T18:03:15ZAnticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations10.1038/s41598-021-86580-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2e6fbd26d6aa48aea3b9b07bb386abca2021-04-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86580-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Tuberculosis (TB) is the 10th leading cause of death worldwide, and since 2007 it has been the main cause of death from a single infectious agent, ranking above HIV/AIDS. The current COVID-19 is a pandemic which caused many deaths around the world. The danger is not only a coinfection as observed for TB and HIV for a long time, but that both TB and SARS-CoV-2 affect the respiratory organs and thus potentiate their effect or accelerate the critical course. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is the estimation of the clinical need to assure adequate medical treatment. This requires a correct adjustment to the critical case detection rate and the prediction of possible scenarios based on known patterns. The African continent faces constraining preconditions in regard to healthcare capacities and social welfare which may hinder required countermeasures. However, given the high TB prevalence rates, COVID-19 may show a particular severe course in respective African countries, e.g. South Africa. Using WHO’s TB and public infrastructure data, we conservatively estimate that the symptomatic critical case rate, which affects the healthcare system, is between 8 and 12% due to the interaction of COVID-19 and TB, for a TB population of 0.52% in South Africa. This TB prevalence leads to a significant increase in the peak load of critical cases of COVID-19 patients and potentially exceeds current healthcare capacities.Jan Christian SchlüterLeif SörensenAndreas BossertMoritz KerstingWieland StaabBenjamin WackerNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jan Christian Schlüter Leif Sörensen Andreas Bossert Moritz Kersting Wieland Staab Benjamin Wacker Anticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations
description	Abstract Tuberculosis (TB) is the 10th leading cause of death worldwide, and since 2007 it has been the main cause of death from a single infectious agent, ranking above HIV/AIDS. The current COVID-19 is a pandemic which caused many deaths around the world. The danger is not only a coinfection as observed for TB and HIV for a long time, but that both TB and SARS-CoV-2 affect the respiratory organs and thus potentiate their effect or accelerate the critical course. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is the estimation of the clinical need to assure adequate medical treatment. This requires a correct adjustment to the critical case detection rate and the prediction of possible scenarios based on known patterns. The African continent faces constraining preconditions in regard to healthcare capacities and social welfare which may hinder required countermeasures. However, given the high TB prevalence rates, COVID-19 may show a particular severe course in respective African countries, e.g. South Africa. Using WHO’s TB and public infrastructure data, we conservatively estimate that the symptomatic critical case rate, which affects the healthcare system, is between 8 and 12% due to the interaction of COVID-19 and TB, for a TB population of 0.52% in South Africa. This TB prevalence leads to a significant increase in the peak load of critical cases of COVID-19 patients and potentially exceeds current healthcare capacities.
format	article
author	Jan Christian Schlüter Leif Sörensen Andreas Bossert Moritz Kersting Wieland Staab Benjamin Wacker
author_facet	Jan Christian Schlüter Leif Sörensen Andreas Bossert Moritz Kersting Wieland Staab Benjamin Wacker
author_sort	Jan Christian Schlüter
title	Anticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations
title_short	Anticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations
title_full	Anticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations
title_fullStr	Anticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations
title_full_unstemmed	Anticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations
title_sort	anticipating the impact of covid19 and comorbidities on the south african healthcare system by agent-based simulations
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2e6fbd26d6aa48aea3b9b07bb386abca
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Anticipating the impact of COVID19 and comorbidities on the South African healthcare system by agent-based simulations

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