Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria

Abstract The need for more pragmatic approaches to achieve sustainable development goal on childhood mortality reduction necessitated this study. Simultaneous study of the influence of where the children live and the censoring nature of children survival data is scarce. We identified the composition...

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Autores principales:	A. F. Fagbamigbe, M. M. Salawu, S. M. Abatan, O. Ajumobi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2ec7a18da73f4f6089d905b1539971e0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2ec7a18da73f4f6089d905b1539971e02021-12-02T16:10:27ZApproximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria10.1038/s41598-021-92606-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2ec7a18da73f4f6089d905b1539971e02021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-92606-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The need for more pragmatic approaches to achieve sustainable development goal on childhood mortality reduction necessitated this study. Simultaneous study of the influence of where the children live and the censoring nature of children survival data is scarce. We identified the compositional and contextual factors associated with under-five (U5M) and infant (INM) mortality in Nigeria from 5 MCMC Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression models as approximations of the Cox survival regression model. The 2018 DHS data of 33,924 under-five children were used. Life table techniques and the Mlwin 3.05 module for the analysis of hierarchical data were implemented in Stata Version 16. The overall INM rate (INMR) was 70 per 1000 livebirths compared with U5M rate (U5MR) of 131 per 1000 livebirth. The INMR was lowest in Ogun (17 per 1000 live births) and highest in Kaduna (106), Gombe (112) and Kebbi (116) while the lowest U5MR was found in Ogun (29) and highest in Jigawa (212) and Kebbi (248). The risks of INM and U5M were highest among children with none/low maternal education, multiple births, low birthweight, short birth interval, poorer households, when spouses decide on healthcare access, having a big problem getting to a healthcare facility, high community illiteracy level, and from states with a high proportion of the rural population in the fully adjusted model. Compared with the null model, 81% vs 13% and 59% vs 35% of the total variation in INM and U5M were explained by the state- and neighbourhood-level factors respectively. Infant- and under-five mortality in Nigeria is influenced by compositional and contextual factors. The Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model used in estimating the factors associated with childhood deaths in Nigeria fitted the survival data.A. F. FagbamigbeM. M. SalawuS. M. AbatanO. AjumobiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-18 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q A. F. Fagbamigbe M. M. Salawu S. M. Abatan O. Ajumobi Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria
description	Abstract The need for more pragmatic approaches to achieve sustainable development goal on childhood mortality reduction necessitated this study. Simultaneous study of the influence of where the children live and the censoring nature of children survival data is scarce. We identified the compositional and contextual factors associated with under-five (U5M) and infant (INM) mortality in Nigeria from 5 MCMC Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression models as approximations of the Cox survival regression model. The 2018 DHS data of 33,924 under-five children were used. Life table techniques and the Mlwin 3.05 module for the analysis of hierarchical data were implemented in Stata Version 16. The overall INM rate (INMR) was 70 per 1000 livebirths compared with U5M rate (U5MR) of 131 per 1000 livebirth. The INMR was lowest in Ogun (17 per 1000 live births) and highest in Kaduna (106), Gombe (112) and Kebbi (116) while the lowest U5MR was found in Ogun (29) and highest in Jigawa (212) and Kebbi (248). The risks of INM and U5M were highest among children with none/low maternal education, multiple births, low birthweight, short birth interval, poorer households, when spouses decide on healthcare access, having a big problem getting to a healthcare facility, high community illiteracy level, and from states with a high proportion of the rural population in the fully adjusted model. Compared with the null model, 81% vs 13% and 59% vs 35% of the total variation in INM and U5M were explained by the state- and neighbourhood-level factors respectively. Infant- and under-five mortality in Nigeria is influenced by compositional and contextual factors. The Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model used in estimating the factors associated with childhood deaths in Nigeria fitted the survival data.
format	article
author	A. F. Fagbamigbe M. M. Salawu S. M. Abatan O. Ajumobi
author_facet	A. F. Fagbamigbe M. M. Salawu S. M. Abatan O. Ajumobi
author_sort	A. F. Fagbamigbe
title	Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria
title_short	Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria
title_full	Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria
title_fullStr	Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria
title_full_unstemmed	Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria
title_sort	approximation of the cox survival regression model by mcmc bayesian hierarchical poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in nigeria
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2ec7a18da73f4f6089d905b1539971e0
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Approximation of the Cox survival regression model by MCMC Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson modelling of factors associated with childhood mortality in Nigeria

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