Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or underg...

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Autores principales:	Annalisa Fierro, Antonella Liccardo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2ee50629e6224d5796da80a59d476b49
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2ee50629e6224d5796da80a59d476b492021-11-18T08:40:34ZLattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0083641https://doaj.org/article/2ee50629e6224d5796da80a59d476b492013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24376727/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.Annalisa FierroAntonella LiccardoPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 12, p e83641 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Annalisa Fierro Antonella Liccardo Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.
description	Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.
format	article
author	Annalisa Fierro Antonella Liccardo
author_facet	Annalisa Fierro Antonella Liccardo
author_sort	Annalisa Fierro
title	Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.
title_short	Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.
title_full	Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.
title_fullStr	Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.
title_full_unstemmed	Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.
title_sort	lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/2ee50629e6224d5796da80a59d476b49
work_keys_str_mv	AT annalisafierro latticemodelforinfluenzaspreadingwithspontaneousbehavioralchanges AT antonellaliccardo latticemodelforinfluenzaspreadingwithspontaneousbehavioralchanges
_version_	1718421435854094336

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

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