Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemi...

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Autores principales:	David Moo-Llanes, Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña, Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez, Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal, Camila González, Janine M Ramsey
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb2021-11-18T09:16:53ZCurrent and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0002421https://doaj.org/article/2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb2013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24069478/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.David Moo-LlanesCarlos N Ibarra-CerdeñaEduardo A Rebollar-TéllezSergio Ibáñez-BernalCamila GonzálezJanine M RamseyPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 9, p e2421 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 David Moo-Llanes Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal Camila González Janine M Ramsey Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.
description	Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.
format	article
author	David Moo-Llanes Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal Camila González Janine M Ramsey
author_facet	David Moo-Llanes Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal Camila González Janine M Ramsey
author_sort	David Moo-Llanes
title	Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.
title_short	Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.
title_full	Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.
title_fullStr	Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.
title_full_unstemmed	Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.
title_sort	current and future niche of north and central american sand flies (diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb
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Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

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