Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes

Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to exert an offsetting impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with an El Niño event tending to lower, whereas a positive IOD tending to increase ISMR. Simulation of these relationships in Phase Five of the...

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Autores principales:	Ziguang Li, Xiaopei Lin, Wenju Cai
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2f51493f165542edb65a6623269e6fdc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2f51493f165542edb65a6623269e6fdc2021-12-02T12:32:42ZRealism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes10.1038/s41598-017-05225-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/2f51493f165542edb65a6623269e6fdc2017-07-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-05225-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to exert an offsetting impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with an El Niño event tending to lower, whereas a positive IOD tending to increase ISMR. Simulation of these relationships in Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project has not been fully assessed, nor is their impact on the response of ISMR to greenhouse warming. Here we show that the majority of models simulate an unrealistic present-day IOD-ISMR correlation due to an overly strong control by ENSO. As such, a positive IOD is associated with an ISMR reduction in the simulated present-day climate. This unrealistic present-day correlation is relevant to future ISMR projection, inducing an underestimation in the projected ISMR increase. Thus uncertainties in ISMR projection can be in part induced by present-day simulation of ENSO, the IOD, their relationship and their rainfall correlations.Ziguang LiXiaopei LinWenju CaiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ziguang Li Xiaopei Lin Wenju Cai Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes
description	Abstract El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to exert an offsetting impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), with an El Niño event tending to lower, whereas a positive IOD tending to increase ISMR. Simulation of these relationships in Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project has not been fully assessed, nor is their impact on the response of ISMR to greenhouse warming. Here we show that the majority of models simulate an unrealistic present-day IOD-ISMR correlation due to an overly strong control by ENSO. As such, a positive IOD is associated with an ISMR reduction in the simulated present-day climate. This unrealistic present-day correlation is relevant to future ISMR projection, inducing an underestimation in the projected ISMR increase. Thus uncertainties in ISMR projection can be in part induced by present-day simulation of ENSO, the IOD, their relationship and their rainfall correlations.
format	article
author	Ziguang Li Xiaopei Lin Wenju Cai
author_facet	Ziguang Li Xiaopei Lin Wenju Cai
author_sort	Ziguang Li
title	Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes
title_short	Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes
title_full	Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes
title_fullStr	Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes
title_full_unstemmed	Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes
title_sort	realism of modelled indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical indo-pacific affects projected monsoon changes
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/2f51493f165542edb65a6623269e6fdc
work_keys_str_mv	AT ziguangli realismofmodelledindiansummermonsooncorrelationwiththetropicalindopacificaffectsprojectedmonsoonchanges AT xiaopeilin realismofmodelledindiansummermonsooncorrelationwiththetropicalindopacificaffectsprojectedmonsoonchanges AT wenjucai realismofmodelledindiansummermonsooncorrelationwiththetropicalindopacificaffectsprojectedmonsoonchanges
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Realism of modelled Indian summer monsoon correlation with the tropical Indo-Pacific affects projected monsoon changes

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