The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-1...

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Autores principales:	Robert Hohan, Petre Milu, Simona Paraschiv, Corina Casangiu, Andreea Tudor, Ovidiu Vlaicu, Leontina Banica, Marius Surleac, Dragos Florea, Dan Otelea
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	mutation screening prediction infection prevalence Medicine R
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2f651884d5704e788e2384260e164354
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2f651884d5704e788e2384260e1643542021-11-25T18:38:27ZThe Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves10.3390/pathogens101114642076-0817https://doaj.org/article/2f651884d5704e788e2384260e1643542021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/10/11/1464https://doaj.org/toc/2076-0817Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) continues to be the gold standard for molecular surveillance of the pandemics but other assays such as mutation genotyping can be used to reduce costs and allocated time. This study investigates the efficiency of mutation screening tests compared to WGS and their predictive value to anticipate future waves. A very high degree of fidelity for this type of assay was found, regardless of the method used. The positive predictive value (PPV) of 4/5 markers was over 95% for the detection of Alpha and Delta variants. By estimating the prevalence of the Alpha and Delta strains using genotyping assays and fitting the data to a mathematical model, a five week period between the point of exponential growth of variant prevalence and a drastic increase in case numbers was found. For that reason, raising awareness about the efficacy of mutation screening could help authorities adopt better measures in the future.Robert HohanPetre MiluSimona ParaschivCorina CasangiuAndreea TudorOvidiu VlaicuLeontina BanicaMarius SurleacDragos FloreaDan OteleaMDPI AGarticlemutationscreeningpredictioninfectionprevalenceMedicineRENPathogens, Vol 10, Iss 1464, p 1464 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	mutation screening prediction infection prevalence Medicine R
spellingShingle	mutation screening prediction infection prevalence Medicine R Robert Hohan Petre Milu Simona Paraschiv Corina Casangiu Andreea Tudor Ovidiu Vlaicu Leontina Banica Marius Surleac Dragos Florea Dan Otelea The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
description	Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) continues to be the gold standard for molecular surveillance of the pandemics but other assays such as mutation genotyping can be used to reduce costs and allocated time. This study investigates the efficiency of mutation screening tests compared to WGS and their predictive value to anticipate future waves. A very high degree of fidelity for this type of assay was found, regardless of the method used. The positive predictive value (PPV) of 4/5 markers was over 95% for the detection of Alpha and Delta variants. By estimating the prevalence of the Alpha and Delta strains using genotyping assays and fitting the data to a mathematical model, a five week period between the point of exponential growth of variant prevalence and a drastic increase in case numbers was found. For that reason, raising awareness about the efficacy of mutation screening could help authorities adopt better measures in the future.
format	article
author	Robert Hohan Petre Milu Simona Paraschiv Corina Casangiu Andreea Tudor Ovidiu Vlaicu Leontina Banica Marius Surleac Dragos Florea Dan Otelea
author_facet	Robert Hohan Petre Milu Simona Paraschiv Corina Casangiu Andreea Tudor Ovidiu Vlaicu Leontina Banica Marius Surleac Dragos Florea Dan Otelea
author_sort	Robert Hohan
title	The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_short	The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_full	The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_fullStr	The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_full_unstemmed	The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_sort	predictive value of mutation screening for anticipating covid-19 waves
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/2f651884d5704e788e2384260e164354
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The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves

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