The Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France

<span class="abs_content">Drawing on the case of France during the 2017 presidential election, which was marked by the victory of the centrist Emmanuel Macron and the surge of the populist radical right (Marine Le Pen) and left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon), this paper analyses the impact of...

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Autor principal:	Nonna Mayer
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Coordinamento SIBA 2019
Materias:	abstention vote choice populism radical right radical left social insecurity precariousness Political science (General) JA1-92
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/2f727e71f2de49ddbbc956cfbc205d39
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:2f727e71f2de49ddbbc956cfbc205d392021-11-21T15:11:40ZThe Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France1972-76232035-660910.1285/i20356609v11i3p646https://doaj.org/article/2f727e71f2de49ddbbc956cfbc205d392019-02-01T00:00:00Zhttp://siba-ese.unisalento.it/index.php/paco/article/view/20224https://doaj.org/toc/1972-7623https://doaj.org/toc/2035-6609<span class="abs_content">Drawing on the case of France during the 2017 presidential election, which was marked by the victory of the centrist Emmanuel Macron and the surge of the populist radical right (Marine Le Pen) and left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon), this paper analyses the impact of social insecurity on voting, using a multidimensional indicator of "precariousness" that combines measures of economic hardship and social and cultural isolation. On the basis of the 2017 French Election Study, a series of logistic regressions estimate the impact of precariousness on individual vote choice (including abstention) in both rounds, controlling for socio-demographic and attitudinal variables. Precariousness mainly has a strong negative impact on turnout, silencing the most deprived. Among those who vote, it has a strong negative impact on support for Emmanuel Macron. It also has a positive impact on support for the populist radical right and, to a lesser extent, on support for the populist radical left when controlling for socio-demographic variables. But this effect practically disappears after controlling for attitudes. Social insecurity does not necessarily breed populism. Ideological divisions make the difference, especially attitudes towards the European Union, immigration, and the left-right divide.</span><br />Nonna MayerCoordinamento SIBAarticleabstentionvote choicepopulismradical rightradical leftsocial insecurityprecariousnessPolitical science (General)JA1-92ENPartecipazione e Conflitto, Vol 11, Iss 3, Pp 646-691 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	abstention vote choice populism radical right radical left social insecurity precariousness Political science (General) JA1-92
spellingShingle	abstention vote choice populism radical right radical left social insecurity precariousness Political science (General) JA1-92 Nonna Mayer The Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France
description	<span class="abs_content">Drawing on the case of France during the 2017 presidential election, which was marked by the victory of the centrist Emmanuel Macron and the surge of the populist radical right (Marine Le Pen) and left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon), this paper analyses the impact of social insecurity on voting, using a multidimensional indicator of "precariousness" that combines measures of economic hardship and social and cultural isolation. On the basis of the 2017 French Election Study, a series of logistic regressions estimate the impact of precariousness on individual vote choice (including abstention) in both rounds, controlling for socio-demographic and attitudinal variables. Precariousness mainly has a strong negative impact on turnout, silencing the most deprived. Among those who vote, it has a strong negative impact on support for Emmanuel Macron. It also has a positive impact on support for the populist radical right and, to a lesser extent, on support for the populist radical left when controlling for socio-demographic variables. But this effect practically disappears after controlling for attitudes. Social insecurity does not necessarily breed populism. Ideological divisions make the difference, especially attitudes towards the European Union, immigration, and the left-right divide.</span><br />
format	article
author	Nonna Mayer
author_facet	Nonna Mayer
author_sort	Nonna Mayer
title	The Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France
title_short	The Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France
title_full	The Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France
title_fullStr	The Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France
title_full_unstemmed	The Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France
title_sort	political impact of social insecurity in france
publisher	Coordinamento SIBA
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/2f727e71f2de49ddbbc956cfbc205d39
work_keys_str_mv	AT nonnamayer thepoliticalimpactofsocialinsecurityinfrance AT nonnamayer politicalimpactofsocialinsecurityinfrance
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The Political Impact of Social Insecurity in France

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