Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe

Abstract Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunit...

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Autores principales:	Tomáš Hlásny, Martin Mokroš, Laura Dobor, Katarína Merganičová, Martin Lukac
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/304c1e989b974b5b8428c5e1a9a60b35
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:304c1e989b974b5b8428c5e1a9a60b352021-12-02T16:35:11ZFine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe10.1038/s41598-021-96717-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/304c1e989b974b5b8428c5e1a9a60b352021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-96717-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the twenty-first century in Europe. We then confront our predictions with the land coverage of three prominent biodiversity conservation initiatives at two scales. The continental-scale assessment shows that areas with the least stable future climate in Europe are likely to occur at low and high latitudes, with the Iberian Peninsula and the Boreal zones identified as prominent areas of low climatic stability. A follow-up regional scale investigation shows that robust climatic refugia exist even within the highly exposed southern and northern macro-regions. About 23–31% of assessed biodiversity conservation sites in Europe coincide with areas of high future climate stability, we contend that these sites should be prioritised in the formulation of future conservation priorities as the stability of future climate is one of the key factors determining their conservation prospects. Although such focus on climate refugia cannot halt the ongoing biodiversity loss, along with measures such as resilience-based stewardship, it may improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation under climate change.Tomáš HlásnyMartin MokrošLaura DoborKatarína MerganičováMartin LukacNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tomáš Hlásny Martin Mokroš Laura Dobor Katarína Merganičová Martin Lukac Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe
description	Abstract Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the twenty-first century in Europe. We then confront our predictions with the land coverage of three prominent biodiversity conservation initiatives at two scales. The continental-scale assessment shows that areas with the least stable future climate in Europe are likely to occur at low and high latitudes, with the Iberian Peninsula and the Boreal zones identified as prominent areas of low climatic stability. A follow-up regional scale investigation shows that robust climatic refugia exist even within the highly exposed southern and northern macro-regions. About 23–31% of assessed biodiversity conservation sites in Europe coincide with areas of high future climate stability, we contend that these sites should be prioritised in the formulation of future conservation priorities as the stability of future climate is one of the key factors determining their conservation prospects. Although such focus on climate refugia cannot halt the ongoing biodiversity loss, along with measures such as resilience-based stewardship, it may improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation under climate change.
format	article
author	Tomáš Hlásny Martin Mokroš Laura Dobor Katarína Merganičová Martin Lukac
author_facet	Tomáš Hlásny Martin Mokroš Laura Dobor Katarína Merganičová Martin Lukac
author_sort	Tomáš Hlásny
title	Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe
title_short	Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe
title_full	Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe
title_fullStr	Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe
title_full_unstemmed	Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe
title_sort	fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in europe
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/304c1e989b974b5b8428c5e1a9a60b35
work_keys_str_mv	AT tomashlasny finescalevariationinprojectedclimatechangepresentsopportunitiesforbiodiversityconservationineurope AT martinmokros finescalevariationinprojectedclimatechangepresentsopportunitiesforbiodiversityconservationineurope AT lauradobor finescalevariationinprojectedclimatechangepresentsopportunitiesforbiodiversityconservationineurope AT katarinamerganicova finescalevariationinprojectedclimatechangepresentsopportunitiesforbiodiversityconservationineurope AT martinlukac finescalevariationinprojectedclimatechangepresentsopportunitiesforbiodiversityconservationineurope
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Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe

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