Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence

Abstract The potential for oilfield activities to trigger earthquakes in seismogenic areas has been hotly debated. Our model compares the stress changes from remote water injection and a natural earthquake, both of which occurred in northern Italy in recent years, and their potential effects on a ne...

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Autores principales:	Matteo Albano, Salvatore Barba, Gabriele Tarabusi, Michele Saroli, Salvatore Stramondo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/305ea2a4c505455e9b5e84e3412bf91b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:305ea2a4c505455e9b5e84e3412bf91b2021-12-02T11:52:35ZDiscriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence10.1038/s41598-017-00379-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/305ea2a4c505455e9b5e84e3412bf91b2017-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00379-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The potential for oilfield activities to trigger earthquakes in seismogenic areas has been hotly debated. Our model compares the stress changes from remote water injection and a natural earthquake, both of which occurred in northern Italy in recent years, and their potential effects on a nearby Mw 5.9 earthquake that occurred in 2012. First, we calculate the Coulomb stress from 20 years of fluid injection in a nearby oilfield by using a poroelastic model. Then, we compute the stress changes for a 2011 Mw 4.5 earthquake that occurred close to the area of the 2012 mainshock. We found that anthropogenic activities produced an effect that was less than 10% of that generated by the Mw 4.5 earthquake. Therefore, the 2012 earthquake was likely associated with a natural stress increase. The probability of triggering depends on the magnitude of recent earthquakes, the amount of injected water, the distance from an event, and the proximity to the failure of the activated fault. Determining changes that are associated with seismic hazards requires poroelastic area-specific models that include both tectonic and anthropogenic activities. This comprehensive approach is particularly important when assessing the risk of triggered seismicity near densely populated areas.Matteo AlbanoSalvatore BarbaGabriele TarabusiMichele SaroliSalvatore StramondoNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Matteo Albano Salvatore Barba Gabriele Tarabusi Michele Saroli Salvatore Stramondo Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence
description	Abstract The potential for oilfield activities to trigger earthquakes in seismogenic areas has been hotly debated. Our model compares the stress changes from remote water injection and a natural earthquake, both of which occurred in northern Italy in recent years, and their potential effects on a nearby Mw 5.9 earthquake that occurred in 2012. First, we calculate the Coulomb stress from 20 years of fluid injection in a nearby oilfield by using a poroelastic model. Then, we compute the stress changes for a 2011 Mw 4.5 earthquake that occurred close to the area of the 2012 mainshock. We found that anthropogenic activities produced an effect that was less than 10% of that generated by the Mw 4.5 earthquake. Therefore, the 2012 earthquake was likely associated with a natural stress increase. The probability of triggering depends on the magnitude of recent earthquakes, the amount of injected water, the distance from an event, and the proximity to the failure of the activated fault. Determining changes that are associated with seismic hazards requires poroelastic area-specific models that include both tectonic and anthropogenic activities. This comprehensive approach is particularly important when assessing the risk of triggered seismicity near densely populated areas.
format	article
author	Matteo Albano Salvatore Barba Gabriele Tarabusi Michele Saroli Salvatore Stramondo
author_facet	Matteo Albano Salvatore Barba Gabriele Tarabusi Michele Saroli Salvatore Stramondo
author_sort	Matteo Albano
title	Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence
title_short	Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence
title_full	Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence
title_fullStr	Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence
title_full_unstemmed	Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence
title_sort	discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the emilia romagna (italy) 2012 seismic sequence
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/305ea2a4c505455e9b5e84e3412bf91b
work_keys_str_mv	AT matteoalbano discriminatingbetweennaturalandanthropogenicearthquakesinsightsfromtheemiliaromagnaitaly2012seismicsequence AT salvatorebarba discriminatingbetweennaturalandanthropogenicearthquakesinsightsfromtheemiliaromagnaitaly2012seismicsequence AT gabrieletarabusi discriminatingbetweennaturalandanthropogenicearthquakesinsightsfromtheemiliaromagnaitaly2012seismicsequence AT michelesaroli discriminatingbetweennaturalandanthropogenicearthquakesinsightsfromtheemiliaromagnaitaly2012seismicsequence AT salvatorestramondo discriminatingbetweennaturalandanthropogenicearthquakesinsightsfromtheemiliaromagnaitaly2012seismicsequence
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Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence

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