Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.

We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur appr...

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Autores principales:	Stuart Paynter, Laith Yakob, Eric A F Simões, Marilla G Lucero, Veronica Tallo, Hanna Nohynek, Robert S Ware, Philip Weinstein, Gail Williams, Peter D Sly
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/3101d13f623b43c1906bfc24131bf7de
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:3101d13f623b43c1906bfc24131bf7de2021-11-18T08:30:40ZUsing mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0090094https://doaj.org/article/3101d13f623b43c1906bfc24131bf7de2014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24587222/pdf/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.Stuart PaynterLaith YakobEric A F SimõesMarilla G LuceroVeronica TalloHanna NohynekRobert S WarePhilip WeinsteinGail WilliamsPeter D SlyPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 2, p e90094 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Stuart Paynter Laith Yakob Eric A F Simões Marilla G Lucero Veronica Tallo Hanna Nohynek Robert S Ware Philip Weinstein Gail Williams Peter D Sly Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.
description	We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.
format	article
author	Stuart Paynter Laith Yakob Eric A F Simões Marilla G Lucero Veronica Tallo Hanna Nohynek Robert S Ware Philip Weinstein Gail Williams Peter D Sly
author_facet	Stuart Paynter Laith Yakob Eric A F Simões Marilla G Lucero Veronica Tallo Hanna Nohynek Robert S Ware Philip Weinstein Gail Williams Peter D Sly
author_sort	Stuart Paynter
title	Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.
title_short	Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.
title_full	Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.
title_fullStr	Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.
title_full_unstemmed	Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.
title_sort	using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the philippines.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/3101d13f623b43c1906bfc24131bf7de
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Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.

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