Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world causing substantial numbers of cases and deaths in most countries. Many have implemented nationwide stringent control to avoid overburdening the health care system. This has paralyzed economic and social activities and may continue to do s...

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Autores principales:	Sake J. de Vlas, Luc E. Coffeng
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/31047c1c60e449c1bfbc716c028a815a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:31047c1c60e449c1bfbc716c028a815a2021-12-02T11:35:57ZAchieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control10.1038/s41598-021-83492-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/31047c1c60e449c1bfbc716c028a815a2021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83492-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world causing substantial numbers of cases and deaths in most countries. Many have implemented nationwide stringent control to avoid overburdening the health care system. This has paralyzed economic and social activities and may continue to do so until the large-scale availability of a vaccine. We propose an alternative exit strategy to develop herd immunity in a predictable and controllable way: a phased lift of control. This means that successive parts of the country (e.g. provinces) stop stringent control, and COVID-19-related IC admissions are distributed over the country as a whole. Importantly, vulnerable individuals need to be shielded until herd immunity has developed in their area. We explore the characteristics and duration of this strategy using a novel individual-based model for geographically stratified transmission of COVID-19 in a country. The model predicts that individuals will have to experience stringent control for about 14 months on average, but this duration may be almost halved by further developments (more IC beds, better treatments). Clearly, implementation of this strategy would have a profound impact on individuals and society, and should therefore be considered carefully by various other disciplines (e.g. health systems, ethics, economics) before actual implementation.Sake J. de VlasLuc E. CoffengNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sake J. de Vlas Luc E. Coffeng Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control
description	Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the entire world causing substantial numbers of cases and deaths in most countries. Many have implemented nationwide stringent control to avoid overburdening the health care system. This has paralyzed economic and social activities and may continue to do so until the large-scale availability of a vaccine. We propose an alternative exit strategy to develop herd immunity in a predictable and controllable way: a phased lift of control. This means that successive parts of the country (e.g. provinces) stop stringent control, and COVID-19-related IC admissions are distributed over the country as a whole. Importantly, vulnerable individuals need to be shielded until herd immunity has developed in their area. We explore the characteristics and duration of this strategy using a novel individual-based model for geographically stratified transmission of COVID-19 in a country. The model predicts that individuals will have to experience stringent control for about 14 months on average, but this duration may be almost halved by further developments (more IC beds, better treatments). Clearly, implementation of this strategy would have a profound impact on individuals and society, and should therefore be considered carefully by various other disciplines (e.g. health systems, ethics, economics) before actual implementation.
format	article
author	Sake J. de Vlas Luc E. Coffeng
author_facet	Sake J. de Vlas Luc E. Coffeng
author_sort	Sake J. de Vlas
title	Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control
title_short	Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control
title_full	Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control
title_fullStr	Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control
title_full_unstemmed	Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control
title_sort	achieving herd immunity against covid-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/31047c1c60e449c1bfbc716c028a815a
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Achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 at the country level by the exit strategy of a phased lift of control

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